Tough year-over-year comparisons and seasonal fluctuations will make for a “choppy summer” in Sin City. That was the word from Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas, following meetings with Las Vegas-based casino operators.
Industry insiders, however, foretold month-by-month improvements starting September, with the fourth quarter holding “a return to growth.” Trends at locals casinos were said to be stable and solid, except for low-end customers playing less.
Regional casinos were said to be experiencing strong business, potentially fueled by consumers trading down from Las Vegas to closer casinos.
In the manufacturing sector, companies — particularly Light & Wonder — reported a rebound from recent tariff scares. And neither BetMGM nor Caesars Sportsbook indicated any desire to impose service charges on Illinois customers.
Jonas met with executives from Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts International, Station Casinos, Golden Entertainment, The Venetian, and Wynn Resorts. Although Las Vegas Sands no longer has a stateside presence, Jonas paid it a visit as well.
“Operators see a softer summer driven by weak convention business and seasonality with no real callouts around consumer weakness,” he reported. Room rates in the second quarter were said to be soft, with modest improvement in July. Execs were also bracing for a shift in the Jewish High Holy Days that would negatively impact third-quarter numbers.
Despite reports to the contrary, “Operators are clear that they’re not seeing any fundamental consumer issues.” Hotel bookings were said to be improving for the autumn, carrying over into the early winter of 2025. The 2026 convention calendar was also seen as an improvement on 2025’s.
A billion-dollar refit of the Las Vegas Convention Center is on track to be ready in time for the Con-Agg Expo in early 2026, with its 100,000 attendees. The Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority also reported record amounts of meeting business for 2026.
Although the luxury segment, one-third of the Las Vegas total, was reported to be just slightly depressed, lower tiers of business weren’t so fortunate. Over the summer months, room rates were off an average of eight percent. “Most operators we spoke with see the Strip softness as a short-term hiccup (3-6 months), with enthusiasm building as we head into 2026,” Jonas recorded.
Locals casino stability was being fueled by “strong employment and wage growth, as well as high home prices and less exposure to equity markets.” Promotional activity, though, was seen to be ramping up.
“Some operators noted stabilization in the promo environment, while others are still seeing some challenges at specific properties,” Jonas noted. He added that publicly traded casino operators were showing promotional restraint, rather than chasing low-end customers who chase promotions from one gambling hall to another.
Regional casinos reported “fairly positive” returns. These venues trended four percent higher in May, with Everi-measured cash transactions (including at tribal casinos) up significantly.
Last spring’s “Liberation Day” imposition of tariffs on the United States resulted in “some product sales hesitancy from operators,” Jonas chronicled. But the industry had moved on since then, with Light & Wonder reporting “a return to more normal product sales trends, though we’ve heard more hesitancy from some smaller players.” Ninety-day lease-to-own contracts were found to be increasingly in favor, as well.
Manufacturers said they were coping with tariffs by adjusting their supply chains or offshoring operations: “Several companies have moved production offshore to other countries such as Mexico and then deliver the international units directly.”
