Democrats no longer hold the robust advantage among Latinos they once did on immigration, according to a new poll.
Why it matters: Once reliably Democratic voters, many Latinos are increasingly identifying as independent, and working-class voters are leaning more toward the GOP.
- An estimated 36.2 million U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote in this year’s election.
Zoom in: An Equis poll released Tuesday of 1,592 registered Latino voters in seven battleground states found 41% of Hispanic voters trust Trump on immigration compared to 38% for Biden.
What they’re saying: The problem for Democrats and Biden “is great uncertainty in support” for the president among Latino voters, Carlos Odio, co-founder and senior vice president for research at Equis Labs, told reporters Tuesday.
- One prominent factor: Democrats don’t hold the advantage they once did with Latinos on immigration, Oido adds.
Yes, but: Immigration has shown to be lower on the list of concerns among Latinos according to various Axios-Ipsos Latino Polls in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.
- The top issue has consistently been inflation or the economy.
- “Immigration has never been the top issue for Latino voters. But at various critical moments, it played a role in differentiating between the parties for Latinos, even among those who themselves are not immigrants.”
The big picture: Biden is stepping up Hispanic outreach in key states like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, among others, while Trump recently launched his own targeted effort.
- The Trump campaign announced this month it was creating “Latino Americans for Trump,” a coalition “with notable members of Latino communities from across the country.”
- The campaign promised Trump would visit “majority-minority deep-blue areas” that presidential candidates never go to and build infrastructures targeting “persuadable Black and Hispanic voters.”
- “Team Trump’s outreach to minority communities is a stark contrast to Joe Biden’s failing campaign whose only tactic is to gaslight minority voters with desperate ads and pandering speeches,” Trump senior advisor Danielle Alvarez tells Axios in a statement.
The other side: The Biden campaign, which has invested heavily in ads targeting Latinos, dismissed Trump’s Latino outreach.
- “Where were all the Latinos at Donald Trump’s ‘Latino Americans with Trump’ launch?” Hispanic Media Director Maca Casado said in a statement in response to a recent Trump Nevada visit.
- Casado said Trump was “doubling down attacking immigrants, and espousing the same racist tropes against Venezuelans.”
What we’re watching: Biden’s move this week to grant protection to half a million undocumented people with citizen spouses could “move the needle among Latino voters,” per Odio.
- 72% of Latinos in the survey who said they do not currently support Biden said they would be more likely to vote for him if he put such a program in place.
Methodology: The Equis survey was conducted with TargetSmart from April 20-May 5, 2024 in English and Spanish.
- The margin of error is ±2.6 percentage points for the samples from battleground states and larger for non-battleground samples.
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