Louisville basketball March Madness projections, UofL NCAA Tournament

 

 

• Louisville basketball begins postseason play Wednesday afternoon as the No. 6 seed in the ACC Tournament.
• Pat Kelsey’s Cardinals arrived in Charlotte, North Carolina, with some momentum, having picked up their first Quad 1A win last weekend at then-No. 23 Miami.
• Here’s a look at where UofL stands in the latest round of bracketology before taking the court at the Spectrum Center.

CHARLOTTE, NC — Pat Kelsey keeps some tabs on where Louisville basketball stands in NCAA Tournament projections.

“I peek at it every once in a while,” the coach told reporters Monday. “It’s not my style, but I can’t help it.”

His 24th-ranked Cardinals (22-9, 11-7 ACC) can help their cause at the ACC Tournament, which for them begins Wednesday afternoon at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

UofL enters the postseason with some momentum, having secured its first Quad 1A win (and the program’s first road victory over a ranked opponent since Jan. 18, 2020) in the regular-season finale, 92-89 at then-No. 23 Miami last weekend. And it did so without starting point guard Mikel Brown Jr., who on Tuesday night was ruled out of the entire tournament due to a reaggravated back injury — with the goal of being 100% for March Madness.

“I think we’re playing really, really good basketball at the right time of the year,” Kelsey said Monday. “… I love where we are and where we’re headed.”

Here’s a deeper look at Louisville’s NCAA Tournament résumé — and where the Cards landed in the latest round of bracketology entering the postseason. (Note: This file will be updated with new developments throughout the week.)

Louisville, as of Tuesday, was 13th in the NET and 21st in Wins Above Bubble (4.35), which reflects the difference in how many wins a team has vs. the expected number of wins an average NCAA Tournament bubble team would rack up against the same schedule.

Here’s its record by the all-important quadrants:

• Quad 1: 7-9
• Quad 2: 4-0
• Quad 3: 4-0
• Quad 4: 7-0

As of Tuesday, the Cards ranked 25th in résumé quality on EvanMiya.com, which placed them in the Nos. 6-8 seed range. BartTorvik.com, meanwhile, had UofL as the fourth-best No. 5 seed — behind Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Tennessee.

Louisville was the third-best No. 6 seed (5.91) on The Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix as of Tuesday. The Cards appeared on all 109 submissions. Their ceiling? A No. 5 seed. Their floor? A No. 7 seed.

Here’s a look at where a few prognosticators placed Kelsey’s team:

• USA TODAY (March 10): No. 6 Louisville vs. either No. 11 Indiana or No. 11 VCU in San Diego (South region)
• The Athletic (March 10): No. 6 Louisville vs. Miami (Ohio) in Greenville, South Carolina (Midwest region)
• CBS Sports (March 10): No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa (Midwest region)
• ESPN (March 9): No. 6 Louisville vs. either No. 11 VCU or No. 11 Auburn in Oklahoma City (South region)
• FOX Sports (March 6): No. 6 Louisville vs. either No. 11 Ohio State or No. 11 New Mexico (Midwest region)

Louisville, as of Wednesday, was +2,000 (20-1) to reach the Final Four on DraftKings and +9,000 (90-1) to cut down the nets at Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium.

At BetMGM, the Cards’ odds were +2,200 (22-1) to reach the Final Four and +9,000 (90-1) to win it all.

As the No. 6 seed in the ACC Tournament, Louisville begins postseason play at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday against either No. 11 SMU or No. 14 Syracuse. The Cards went 1-1 vs. the Mustangs and 1-0 vs. the Orange during the regular season.

A win would set up a rematch against the Hurricanes, the tournament’s No. 3 seed, at 2:30 p.m. Thursday.

“You have to have an understanding that the plan is to play four games in four days,” Kelsey told reporters Monday. “You have to be smart on the front end in terms of your load — like, what we do today and tomorrow. I want them really ready, but I want them to be fresh, as well.

“The sole focus is on winning that game on Wednesday,” he added. “If your focus isn’t there, you never get to Thursday. But I think you do (have) to understand that, if we do what we want to do, it’s going to be physically challenging for everybody.”

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.