Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira expert prediction, UFC 320

Can ex-champion Alex Pereira reclaim the light heavyweight title from Magomed Ankalaev, who took it from him in March?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 320 main event between Magomed Anakalev and Alex Pereira.

Magomed Ankalaev UFC 320 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 20-1-1 MMA, 11-1-1 UFC
• Height: 6’3″ Age: 33 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 75″
• Last fight: Decision win over Alex Pereira (March 8, 2025)
• Camp: Fight Club Akhmat (Russia)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

• + UFC light heavyweight champion
• + Regional MMA titles
• + Amateur MMA accolades
• + Grego-Roman wrestling champion of Dagestan
• + 11 KO victories
• + 6 first-round finishes
• + KO power
• + Accurate crosses and hooks
• + Hard left kicks
• ^ Variates looks and levels
• + Strikes well off the breaks
• + Strong inside the clinch
• ^ Serviceable trips and takedowns
• + Good positional grappler
• ^ Heavy ground-and-pound
• +/- 2-0 in career rematches (MMA)

Alex Pereira UFC 320 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 12-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC
• Height: 6’4″ Age: 38 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 80″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Magomed Ankalaev (March 8, 2025)
• Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Garage (Danbury, Conn.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

• + Former UFC light heavyweight champion
• + Former UFC middleweight champion
• + 5x Glory middleweight and light heavyweight titles
• + Pro kickboxing record: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)
• + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
• + 9 KO victories
• + 3 first-round finishes
• + Knockout power
• ^ Superb proprioception and accuracy
• + Devastating left hook and right cross
• ^ Splits timing and counters well
• + Dangerous knees and leg kicks
• + Strong inside the clinch
• ^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations
• + Serviceable grappling game
• +/- 2-1 against dedicated UFC-level southpaws
• +/- 1-1 in MMA rematches, 3-3 in kickboxing

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira 2 point of interest: Striking the first time around

The main event for UFC 320 features a rematch for the light heavyweight title between Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira.

Their first meeting took place at UFC 313 earlier this year, and it went the entire five frames.

Pereira, who many thought looked flat throughout the contest, primarily looked to peck away on the outside with his patented leg kicks. And though this was able to secure Pereira the first round, the then-sitting champion’s lack of a jab was evident.

It’s not unusual for MMA fighters to lose their jab in open-stance affairs, but Pereira’s jab was arguably a lot more present in past performances against southpaws regardless of which combat sport he was competing in. However, to Ankalaev’s credit, the Russian southpaw was able to steal the striking initiative throughout the fight by stymying lead-hand dynamics and controlling the centerline with his shot selections.

In fact, any analyst or appreciator of striking can rewatch their first fight with a focus on the lead-hand interplay, and what you’ll see is a whole other story to this fight.

From feints to Dutch hand-trap variations, Ankalaev offers some quiet-but-effective looks to stymie opponents’ lead hand offerings and ability to seize initiative.

Although having striking initiative isn’t necessarily synonymous with pressure fighting (much less coming forward), it’s an undeniable component to Pereira’s process as far as him feeling himself on the front foot goes. So, whenever anyone suggests that Pereira needs to come forward in order to have success against Ankalaev, it’s important to keep in mind that this battle will likely, once again, be won and lost in the lead hand battle.

Ankalaev, who has always been a dangerous counter puncher with solid eyes in exchanges, was also able to counter a decent amount of Pereira’s advances with the weapon that all southpaws should never leave home without: a check right hook.

Pereira was able to find some nice pull counters himself, but those instances, as well as his right hand in general, were notably absent throughout large parts of the contest. Perhaps these tool vacancies on the Pereira side can be explained by the injury rumors that surrounded their first meeting, or it could be chalked up to Ankalaev’s grappling presence.

Sure, Pereira was able to defend each attempt from Ankalaev successfully, but we’ve also seen Pereira’s volume diminish against fighters who pose grappling threats (e.g., his fight with Jan Blachowicz). Nevertheless, with Pereira still able to keep things competitive down the stretch, I’ll be curious to see what adjustments are made this time around.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira 2 point of interest: Potential adjustments

As is often the case with immediate rematches, strategic and tactical adjustments tend to weigh much more in forecasting a winner.

Ankalaev stands perfect in the rematch column at 2-0 in MMA, while Pereira stands at 1-1. That said, Pereira has much more experience with rematches when it comes to kickboxing – where he officially sits at 3-3.

Aside from the fact that a few of the said fight results from each column could be flipped around, Pereira has traditionally come into rematches more confident and prepared, win or lose. In his MMA rematch with Israel Adesanya, Pereira – despite getting caught coming forward – displayed the understanding of the importance of pressure and using his jab (offering those looks much more aggressively from the start).

If the looming grappling threats of Ankalaev were responsible for a large part of the offensive vacancies last time around, then I suspect Pereira may be more confident when it comes to stepping on the gas after seeing how his takedown defense held up over five frames. I know that fighters like Khalil Rountree have different stylistic tendencies than Akalaev, but it’s hard to ignore how much more comfortable Pereira has looked against other lefties and fellow big punchers who appear to be faster than him.

Ankalaev, on the other hand, is arguably a bigger question mark in the adjustment department considering that he fought an incredibly smart and sharp tactical fight already, something that the Dagestani doppleganger of Stipe Miocic hasn’t always done – even in his wins.

The thought that comes first to most minds is more wrestling, but – aside from that not necessarily being Anakalaev’s style – the sitting champ hasn’t shown a ton of depth or finishing potential from top position in the octagon.

I’m also not sure Ankalaev’s cardio will hold up as well as it did in their first fight if he sells outs for more prolonged wrestling offense, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him stick to smart and opportunistic windows to clinch and kill the clock when he needs to.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira 2 odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Ankalaev -250 and Pereira +198 via FanDuel.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira 2 prediction, pick

Although I don’t disagree with Ankalaev being the betting favorite, I’m not sure how wide you can make these odds considering how competitive the first contest was.

Despite it being a fairly clear win for Ankalaev in my book, let’s not pretend that there was a wide margin across the board. Even in Ankalaev’s most clear round, where he hurt Pereira, Poatan still wasn’t very far behind at all and was arguably finding some answers before getting badly stung and dissuaded.

Don’t get me wrong: I was actually impressed more than most when it came to Ankalaev’s approach and execution, and I admittedly had a difficult time picking against him in this spot.

However, when it comes to potential adjustments, I not only believe that Pereira has more possibilities – but I also suspect that the Brazilian could’ve been operating with a bum hand back at UFC 313.

Even though no injury rumors surrounding the first fight have been confirmed, I noticed that Pereira barely threw his hands, particularly from the power side (as I barely clocked five right-handed attempts from Pereira for the first three frames). If my hunch is correct and an injured Pereira was still able to keep things competitive with a limited toolbox, then I have a hard time justifying him being projected as this much of an underdog.

I know that the vibes seem off for the former champion and that it’s no longer cool to back Pereira, but I’ll stick with my Poatan pick from the first outing. And with rematches seldom going the same way in MMA, I’m willing to bet that this fight ends in a knockout regardless of who ends up winning.

Prediction: Pereira inside the distance

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira 2 start time, how to watch

As the main event, Ankalaev and Pereira are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.