Secretary of State Marco Rubio currently holds an advantage over Vice President JD Vance in hypothetical matchups against several potential Democratic presidential candidates in the 2028 election, according to an Emerson College poll released over the weekend.
According to the poll, Rubio defeats both former vice president Kamala Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in hypothetical races by the same margin, 48% to 43%. Vance, by comparison, narrowly defeats Ocasio-Cortez, 46% to 44%, but loses to Harris by four percentage points.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom performs better than both leading Republican figures in the poll, leading Vance 49% to 44% and Rubio 48% to 46%. The two Democrats showing the strongest results against the two Republicans are former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff. Buttigieg leads both Rubio and Vance by 49% to 44%, while Ossoff leads Rubio 47% to 44% and Vance 49% to 44%.
The findings are particularly notable amid questions over who could succeed US President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. Rubio has already said he would not run for the nomination in 2028 if Vance decides to enter the race, while Vance has said he will make a decision after the November midterm elections.
The Washington Post reported earlier this month that Trump told donors in private conversations that “ultimately, we need to choose JD,” but later publicly qualified his remarks, saying it was too early to discuss endorsing a candidate. Trump has also previously suggested that Vance and Rubio run together, calling them a “dream team,” without saying which of the two should lead the ticket.
The poll was conducted on August 16-17 among 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of three percentage points. This means that some of the closer gaps, including Newsom’s lead over Rubio, fall within the margin of error and should not be viewed at this early stage as predictions of the outcome of the 2028 election.
