Nobody has more riding on an outcome at UFC 314 than Michael Chandler as he looks to bounce back from two straight losses facing off against a lower-ranked opponent in Paddy Pimblett.
That’s according to UFC legend Matt Brown, who sees Chandler as the athlete in the biggest do-or-die situation heading into Saturday’s card due to the circumstances surrounding his UFC career. Despite earning bonuses in five out of his six appearances in the promotion, and putting on three separate Fight of the Night performances, Chandler still boasts a 2-4 record overall, and at 38 years old, he can ill afford to fall to a somewhat unproven prospect like Pimblett.
“We really don’t like using that term and we try to stay away from it but this one I just can’t see it being anything other than do-or-die for him,” Brown said about Chandler on the latest episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer. “Whether die, I guess maybe is not the right word, but he said it very clearly himself before it’s a title or nothing. I’m not here to fight guys, just to make money or whatever.
“The problem with Michael Chandler, he doesn’t have a quality win in the UFC. I mean you could debatably say Dan Hooker. How high quality of a win was Dan Hooker at that time? I think [Dan Hooker has] been on a streak, and he’s finally come into his own since then. I think it would be a higher quality win today than it was then but Tony Ferguson isn’t a quality win. I don’t think anybody’s going to argue that.”
While Brown isn’t exactly sure what a win over Pimblett does for Chandler’s career, he knows that a loss would be absolutely devastating.
Chandler may not have an impeccable record in the UFC but his four losses came to a three former champions in Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Charles Oliveira (twice). Pimblett may eventually develop into a championship level competitor, but he’s nowhere near those three fighters in terms of his overall accomplishments right now.
That’s why Brown believes Chandler has to go out and handle Pimblett in impressive fashion because his mantra since arriving in the UFC has been solely focused on becoming champion. Losing at UFC 314 effectively removes Chandler from that conversation — possibly for the rest of his career.
“We can almost remove the name Paddy Pimblett from it. You can’t lose to the No. 15 guy,” Brown said. “Paddy, with all due respect he’s good, I don’t want to take away the credit. He’s better I think than we all thought he was. He was talking some crazy shit, and he’s performed very well, he’s improved every time. I’ve been very critical of a lot of things Paddy Pimblett related. Like the way he puts on the weight and some of the stupid things he says and the way he carries himself. There’s definitely a lot to criticize on him, but he’s went out and performed.
“I don’t like necessarily saying you can’t lose to Paddy Pimblett. No, you can’t lose to the No. 15 guy or No. 14 guy, whatever that guy’s name is.”
Truth be told, Brown isn’t certain that Chandler totally deserves to be listed alongside the best lightweights in the sport based solely on his accomplishments in the UFC. But regardless, Chandler still occupies a spot in the top 10, and that’s what Pimblett wants to take away from him.
“I don’t know how Michael Chandler is in the top 10,” Brown said. “I love Michael Chandler, I’m not hating on him at all but most people have to win fights to get into the top 10. He just didn’t. Sometimes the rankings are kind of odd. They’re subjective, not really objective. But regardless, my point is we’re going to find out a lot about Paddy Pimblett because this is definitely the toughest guy that he’s fought.
“If Paddy goes out there and beats Michael Chandler, that absolutely f*cking propels this kid. He’s probably a main event next.”
As for Chandler, if he can’t get past Pimblett on Saturday, Brown just doesn’t see a clear path for him to get back to the top of the lightweight division, especially with a growing list of contenders vying for that spot with names like Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan, and now even Ilia Topuria, competing at 155 pounds.
A loss would really test Chandler’s resolve when it comes to his place in the sport, and Brown can’t help but wonder if maybe he might start looking at other pursuits away from the octagon.
“Now it’s your decision: Are you title shot or bust because that means you’re busted,” Brown said about Chandler losing to Pimblett. “The nice thing for Michael Chandler is he’s got a lot of options. Win or lose this fight, he’s got a great brand, people love him. I think he’d be an amazing commentator or an analyst, podcast type guy. Something. He’s really got a good voice for that kind of stuff. The potential for him is there, the brand is still there.
“[But] that’s why I’m bringing up podcasting and being an analyst or a commentator. Because it’s like if you lose to Paddy Pimblett, you better start thinking about what the next career is going to be or the next path.”
