The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,000) Seattle Mariners (-170) vs. Detroit Tigers
We’re now getting some aces coming back for their second start of the season, with Gilbert standing out among that group. He struck out eight through seven innings of one-run ball in his 2025 debut against the Athletics and now gets a similarly attractive matchup against the Tigers.
Detroit has a slate-low 2.9 run total tonight, and Gilbert leads the slate in K Prediction. The most strikeouts and the least amount of runs allowed is as perfect of a combination as we could possibly ask for, especially with his $9,000 salary not breaking the bank.
We get bonus points for this game being in Seattle, which had the best Park Factor for pitchers in baseball over the past three seasons. That’s factored in to the Tigers team total, of course, but it’s still another solid data point for Gilbert.
His ownership will likely lead the slate, but since we have some other solid options at the top he won’t be prohibitively chalky. We can play him with confidence in all contest types. He leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Casey Mize ($7,500) Detroit Tigers (+143) at Seattle Mariners
One of the reasons I brought up the park factor for Gilbert is because of how it reflects on the other pitcher in that matchup, Casey Mize. The former #1 overall pick hasn’t lived up to his potential as a big leaguer, dealing with a variety of injuries since being drafted in 2018.
However, he finished 2024 healthy and has a chance to carry some momentum into the new year. Starting his 2025 campaign in Seattle certainly helps. Not only due to the park factor, but also because seven of the Mariners projected hitters tonight had a K rate of 25% or higher last season. Mize doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but the free-swinging Mariners boost his upside somewhat.
Plus, Seattle is implied for a modest 3.7 runs tonight. That’s solid, if not elite, but more than acceptable at Mize’s price tag. We don’t necessarily need to force Mize into cash lineups, but he’s an interesting GPP option at single-digit ownership. He leads all pitchers priced under $8,000 in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Michael King ($8,700) San Diego Padres (-174) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland comes into this one tied for the second lowest implied total on the board at just 3.4 runs. King is also a solid strikeout pitcher, with a K rate in the upper 20s or higher each of the last three seasons. Despite all that, his ownership projection is just fifth on the slate, well behind Gilbert and Chris Sale ($8,800), among others.
Obviously the name value on Sale plays a part in that, but he’s facing the stacked Dodgers lineup tonight. The ask is much easier for King, especially with this game being at home. San Diego is the second-best ballpark for pitchers, trailing only Seattle in Park Factor (since the Rays have left Tropicana Field).
While King obviously isn’t the star that Sale is, he finished last season with a sub-3.00 ERA and has a much easier matchup. I’ll take that every time, especially with the extra $100 in savings and considerable ownership discount.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
There’s a lot to like about the Rays stack tonight. The biggest thing that stands out is the ratio of their cost to their team total. At 4.9 runs, they’re implied for the highest mark on the slate, but this stack costs just over $4,000 per player.
It looks like they’ll be facing Thomas Harrington, who is making his big league debut tonight. Harrington had solid numbers in the minors, but this is obviously a different challenge entirely. Plus, the Rays new stadium is essentially a replica of Yankee Stadium, one of the better home run parks in baseball.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brent Rooker OF ($5,600) Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele)
Rooker has broken out as a borderline star over the past two seasons, hitting 69 home runs in 2023 and 2024 combined. Last year, he also swiped 11 bases while hitting a solid .296. He stands out today because he’s even better against lefties, as we see in PlateIQ:
Rooker’s price and the A’s moderate total will keep his ownership down, but he’s a fun sprinkle with his home run upside.
Lars Nootbaar OF ($4,000) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels (Kyle Hendricks)
I almost included the PlateIQ screenshot of the Angels Hendircks numbers against lefties instead of Rookers’ stats because the splits for the Angels starter are fairly dramatic.
Last season, left-handed hitters had a wOBA of .370 against Hendricks, with righties at just .307. That’s promising for Nootbaar, who’s a lefty leading off for a team implied for 4.7 runs.
Mini stacks around Cardinals left-handers make a lot of sense here, as does stacking the team in general.
Bo Bichette SS ($4,700) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams)
Bichette didn’t work out for us yesterday, going 0-4 despite his Blue Jays putting up five runs against the Nationals. They’re in a similar spot today against Trevor Williams, with a 4.8-run implied total.
I’m interested in Toronto in general, but Bichette remains underpriced thanks to his down 2024 campaign. He also aligns nicely with the Tampa Bay stack, since that doesn’t use a shortstop.
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