The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($9,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (-153) at Cincinnati Reds
Unlike yesterday, we have a very obvious stud at the top of Tuesday’s slate. Tyler Glasnow leads the slate in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection, making him the clear best choice on the board.
Glasnow has made just eight starts this season due to injuries that kept him out of action in May and June but has hit his stride since rejoining the Dodgers rotation. His three starts in July have produced 23 strikeouts and just two earned runs across 18 innings pitched. Even better, each start has gone longer than the last, and he appeared fully stretched out after a seven-inning appearance last week.
Cincinnati is a roughly league-average opponent against righties, so there’s nothing to worry about from a matchup perspective. The one concern is the location of this game, as Great American Ball Park is the best home run park in baseball.
That’s mitigated by Glasnow’s 31.7% strikeout rate, though. You can’t hit home runs without putting the ball in play, regardless of the dimensions of the stadium. Roster Glasnow confidently in all contest types, as even his ownership projection is relatively reasonable.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Michael Soroka ($7,600) Washington Nationals (+119) at Houston Astros
With Glasnow claiming the lead in Pts/Sal projection, we have to look a bit further down the list to find cheaper options. None of those feel especially comfortable, of course, but that’s to be expected when looking to save salary.
The most tolerable pitcher below about $8,000 in salary is probably Soroka. His 4.85 ERA is concerning, but all of his underlying metrics are much better, with a 3.27 xERA. While it’s getting a bit late in the season to bet on regression, he’s still been better than his ERA would indicate.
The matchup with the Astros isn’t especially noteworthy, and their 4.7 implied runs is on the high side. That doesn’t mean the market is expecting those runs to come off Soroka, though, so I’m trying not to worry too much about that number.
Soroka’s 25% strikeout rate also gives him a bit of upside. Coupled with the uncertainty of banking on regression, I view him as more of a GPP option, but he’s not a terrible cash game play if you really need the salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jesus Luzardo ($9,500) Philadelphia Phillies (-180) at Chicago White Sox
Like Soroka, rostering Luzardo requires banking on some positive regression for a pitcher who has performed much better than his underlying stats. Luzardo also has an ERA in the mid-fours, with his ERA predictors ranging from 3.00 to 3.76.
Where he clearly separates from Soroka is in the matchup department, as Luzardo is taking on the basement-dwelling White Sox. To be fair to Chicago, they’re on the better side of their platoon splits against the lefty Soroka — but still about 10% below average as a team.
Luzardo also has a borderline elite 27.7% strikeout rate, and the Sox strike out at a top-five rate against lefties. That gives him a ton of upside, so long as he doesn’t allow too many runs. It’s difficult from a salary standpoint to pair him with Glasnow but that could be the best options for tournaments, as they pretty clearly have the best ceilings on the slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The good news is the Dodgers stack is a bit cheaper than it was last night, with a $300 net savings compared to the same stack yesterday. The bad news is they’re still expensive — but that’s to be expected given their star-studded roster and the location of their game tonight.
Just like last night, the thesis on the Dodgers is based on their home run potential. They trail only the Yankees in home runs as a team this season and now get to play in the best park for long balls in the majors.
They’ve also got excellent hitting weather, with 90-degree temperatures and wind blowing out to right field in Cincinnati. Nick Lodolo ($8,300) isn’t the easiest matchup, but with the talent on the Dodgers side they should be able to get there anyway.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Taylor Ward OF ($4,600) Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
In his eight-year career, Taylor Ward has consistently hit left-handed pitching better than righties. His career batting average is about 50 points higher against southpaws, with similar increases in slugging percentage and OBP.
That has continued in 2025, as we see in PlateIQ:
In fact, the Angels 4-6 hitters all stand out against lefties and would make for an interesting mini stack. The lefty they’re facing is Patrick Corbin ($7,700), who improbably continues to turn in solid starts this season after five years of futility. Still, Ward and his fellow lefty-mashers have a solid chance of getting to him.
Jonathan India 2B ($3,200) Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves (Erick Fedde)
The Royals are projected as the best stack in our models outside of various Dodgers configurations, with a similar team total but much cheaper price tags. That’s helpful if trying to roster both Glasnow and Luzardo, which is essentially impossible with a Dodgers stack.
The best value on the Royals is India, who remains far too cheap while leading off the Royals lineup. While he’s hitting just .240 with little power, he should have plenty of opportunity for runs if he’s able to get on base. He’s not the most exciting play, but we need to find some value somewhere.
J.P. Crawford SS ($3,700) Seattle Mariners at Athletics (Luis Severino)
Yesterday’s Mariners-A’s game surprisingly produced just four runs, despite having one of the highest game totals on the slate. Today’s game has another excellent total, with both teams implied for more than five runs.
The Mariners’ 5.5 runs lead the slate at the team level, making Crawford also underpriced for his leadoff spot. He’s been solid this year with a .268 average and seven home runs despite home games in the worst hitter’s park in baseball. His OPS is more than 100 points higher on the road, and tonight he gets one of the two best hitters parks in baseball.
That makes him — and the rest of the Mariners — an excellent buy low(ish) candidate. While a full M’s stack is pricey, picking and choosing value options is fairly attainable.
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Pictured: Tyler Glasnow
Photo Credit: Getty Images
