Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC 326 – Holloway vs. Oliveira 2.
When you think of fighters who are fit to fight for a “BMF” Title, you think of fighters like Max Holloway and Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. These are fighters who are willing to live and die by the sword, willing to take on any challenge no matter how daunting. In a rematch 10 years in the making, only one of these generational champions can get his hand raised and proclaim himself the baddest in the game. The combat sports leader is leaning on their headliners with a slightly weaker supporting cast than you typically expect on PPV, but the matchmaking should provide for some violent, entertaining scraps. Let’s begin with a volatile light heavyweight fight featuring a promising debutant and a kill-or-be-killed Brazilian big man.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 – MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Luke Fernandez ($8,900) vs. Rodolfo Bellato ($7,300)
Fight Odds: -235 Fernandez vs. +180 Bellato
Weight Class: 205lb. (Light Heavyweight)
Luke Fernandez (UFC Debut) is kicking off the card riding a wave of momentum that dates back to October of 2020. Fernandez has posted a 6-0 record as a professional, and he is unbeaten through 12 fights pro and amateur. Fernandez is an equal opportunity winner, posting 3 SUB wins as an amateur, 5 KO wins as a professional, and a unanimous decision win under each distinction. Fernandez has no particular wins that jump off the page, but he has solid victories over the likes of Christian Edwards (8-4 Pro), Rafael Pergentino (5-2 Pro), and Reeves Davis Jr. (1-0 Pro; 10-2 Amateur). The former CFFC Champion will be seeking his first UFC win.
Rodolfo Bellato (1-1-1 UFC) has been fortunate to post a 1-1-1 record in the promotion. “Trator” has been knocked down twice in the UFC and 3 times if you include his fights on DWCS. Bellato has been finished brutally by Vitor Petrino on two separate occasions, and he dropped a unanimous decision against City Kickboxing’s Navajo Stirling in his most recent outing. Bellato was getting outstruck by Paul Craig when the fight was declared a no contest after an illegal upkick rendered Bellato unable to continue. He was lucky to survive to see Round 3 against Jimmy Crute, but his staying power earned him a draw that night. Many refs would have stopped his bout against Ihor Potieria due to a lack of intelligent defense, but when the Ukrainian punched himself out looking for the finish, Bellato rallied for the takedown and the TKO win.
Bellato has a sneaky jiu jitsu game, he has above-average cardio for a man of his size, and he has accrued plenty of octagon experience in a short UFC career. That being said, this feels like Fernandez’s fight to win or lose. Bellato has poor striking defense (46%), we know he can be hurt and knocked down, and he was controlled for nearly 4 minutes by a kickboxer in his last fight. Fernandez should be able to hurt Bellato, discipline him with power, or cage push to a win.
Prediction: Luke Fernandez defeats Rodolfo Bellato via KO/DEC
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Favorite DFS Targets on DraftKings
Brunno Ferreira ($7,600)
“Hulk” was able to smash the chin of Rodrigues in his UFC debut (good for 109 points), and now he is 6-2 in the promotion with 5 wins by stoppage. He has also scored 100+ points in 4/6 UFC wins and 93+ points in 5/6 UFC wins. With a salary of 7.6K and massive leverage against the field (18% pOwn vs. 37% Rodrigues), Ferreira has to be a strong underdog consideration on this slate.
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights
