The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease ($9,800) San Diego Padres (-155) at Los Angeles Angels
It’s a relatively easy choice at the top today, as we have arguably the best pitcher on the slate in a plus-matchup. Cease comes into the game with an ERA of 3.42 and slightly better underlying numbers. More importantly, he’s one of just a handful of qualified starters with a strikeout rate of at least 30% on the season.
The Angels aren’t a terrible offense overall, with a 94 wRC+. However, they have fairly drastic platoon splits, with an 88 wRC+ against righties and a 121 mark against lefties. That’s a good sign for the right-handed Cease, as the matchup is somewhat better than it first appears on paper.
Cease also has excellent Vegas Data, with the Angels tied for the lowest implied total on the board. Coupled with his best-in-class K prediction, he’s a safe bet to lead all pitchers today. Cease has the best median projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models, though his elevated ownership could make him a fade for larger GPPs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Zach Eflin ($7,500) Tampa Bay Rays (-127) at Miami Marlins
Wednesday will be the first start for Eflin following a 15-day stint on the IL. That’s a good thing for DFS in that his salary has dropped a bit, and it hopefully has allowed him to return to full strength after a couple of rocky starts before his absence.
It’s not without risk, of course. We can’t be sure that Eflin is back to 100% or that he’ll be allowed to work up to his typical pitch count in this spot. He’s averaged a hair under six innings per appearance in 2024 and would need to come close to that to justify his salary, thanks to his low strikeout rate.
What ultimately makes Eflin worth it, though, is the matchup. Miami is the worst team in baseball by wRC+ against right-handed pitching and are implied for the same 3.7-run total as the Angels. Unfortunately, they don’t strike out much, making Eflin a high-floor, low-ceiling option.
Eflin leads the FantasyLabs models in Pts/SAl projection by a wide margin. He’s an excellent choice for cash games and tighter builds but lacks the upside for large-field GPPs.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,200) Seattle Mariners (-161) at Oakland A’s
There’s a handful of pitchers behind Cease with similar projections, price points, and ownership on Wednesday’s slate. Odds are one of them will finish with a higher score than Cease — by virtue of there being more of them — but picking which one is a challenge. Since ownership is fairly similar among them, it’s simply a question of finding the highest score.
My money is on Gilbert. He doesn’t have the per-inning strikeout upside of Paul Skenes ($8,800), but with Skenes facing the Dodgers and typically operating with a limited pitch count, Gilbert can get to a higher score through run prevention and volume.
Gilbert has similar overall numbers as Carlos Rodon ($8,400), but Rodon’s ERA predictors suggest he’s been a bit lucky, while Gilbert’s xERA and xFIP are mostly in line with his ERA. Rodon also has a somewhat challenging matchup with the Twins, an above-average team against lefties.
Gilbert wins the day thanks to his date with the A’s. While Oakland is capable of putting up runs with a roughly average wRC+ against righties, they also strike out a ton. Their 26.5% rate is third in the majors and goes a long way to boosting Gilbert’s upside.
He’s my favorite pivot from Cease for large-field tournaments, though I’ll likely mix in a Paul Skenes lineup or two as well.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
We have another weather day at Wrigley. According to the Weather Edge Tool from our friends at RotoGrinders, the conditions are extremely favorable for offenses in Chicago. Based on a considerable sample size of 170 games, the current conditions boost run scoring by almost 30%.
Given that DFS salaries are set without regard to the conditions, that makes the Cubs a huge value today. Their 5.2 run total leads the slate, yet you can get a full stack of their top hitters for just $4,400 per player.
That gives a lot of flexibility to how you build lineups today, including versions where you’re able to play two expensive pitchers.
Other Cubs builds are also in play, and it makes sense to focus more on left-handed hitters. The wind is blowing out to right field, Wrigley has a higher Park Factor for lefties than righties, and Erick Fedde ($8,100) has been slightly worse against opposite-hand hitters.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Luis Robert OF ($5,000) Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon)
It’s always fun trying to find a viable White Sox hitter in situations like today. They need to be considered given the weather and pitching matchup — Taillon has a 2.84 ERA, but SIERA and xFIP nearly two runs higher — but they’re also baseball’s worst offense.
Fortunately, Luis Robert made his season debut yesterday, picking up two hits including a home run. Using combined data from this and last season, it’s pretty clear in PlateIQ how far above the rest of his team he stands:
Ezequiel Duran 1B/OF ($2,700) Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers (Kenta Maeda)
The Rangers are one of my other favorite stacks today. I’m honestly shocked that their team total is under five runs today, given how bad Kenta Maeda ($6,200) has been. While Texas scored just one run in each of the past two games, those came against Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty, two top-five pitchers in the MLB by xFIP. Maeda has a 6.25 ERA this season, making it a perfect bounce-back spot for the defending champs.
With that out of the way, I like the value on Duran. He’s hitting a solid .269 on the season and is projected to bat sixth in the Rangers lineup. He’s priced like the 8/9 hole hitter while offering cheap exposure to the offense.
Fortunately, he’s also eligible at two positions, so he can be played with Cubs stacks, despite the Cubs frustratingly having five players only eligible as outfielders.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B ($4,100) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (James Paxton)
I’m interested in the Pirates today, thanks to the absurd luck opposing pitcher James Paxton ($7,700) has experienced this year. He has a solid 3.29 ERA, but his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all 5.24 or above. That’s very uncommon, considering he’s 10 starts deep into his 2024 campaign, and major regression is due.
The Pirates also have a wRC+ 15 points higher against lefties like Paxton, another good sign. Hayes is a big reason why, with a .928 OPS against lefties that drops to .532 against righties. He’s far from the only one with those splits, though, so consider checking out all of the Pirates hitters in PlateIQ.
