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The home run grind rolls into a great Friday slate, and the +EV dingers and MLB player props are plentiful today.
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It’s never a bad idea to look for home runs in Cincinnati, but the pitching matchup is making it even better today, and getting the No. 2 HR/FB hitter in baseball at a price north of +500 is also making the card.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 29.
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UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
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Player to hit a HR |
Odds |
|---|---|
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+577 |
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+527 |
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+246 |
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💲Today’s HR parlay |
+13630 |
Home run pick: Mike Yastrzemski (+577)
Great American Ball Park is always a strong place to target home runs, and Mike Yastrzemski is one of the better +EV dinger looks on the board today with a fair price around +480, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT.
He’s in strong form right now with the team’s third-best slugging percentage and wOBA over the last 30 days, while also getting the ball in the air consistently with a 52% fly-ball rate that ranks second on the team this month.
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He’ll face Chris Paddack, who has been crushed at GABP this year with a 12.67 ERA and a 2.2 HR/9. His 35% groundball rate does him no favors in this park, and his Bottom-10 xFIP among MLB starters over the last 30 days suggests the struggles are very real.
Pitcher/hitter history is usually secondary, but it’s still worth noting that Yastrzemski has had success against Paddack with three home runs across 25 plate appearances.
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Where to watch: Reds.TV, BravesVision
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+527)
Dodger Stadium grades out as a Top-5 park for home runs today, per Ballpark Pal, with 9-mph winds blowing out to right-center field.
That’s good news for a Bryce Harper bomb priced north of +500, with a buy point at +480 or better. Harper has already launched seven home runs this month and owns an absurd 31.8% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, which ranks second in baseball behind only teammate Kyle Schwarber at 37.5%.
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Harper’s fly-ball rate hasn’t been elite lately, but if he gets one in the air against Justin Wrobleski, it could quickly turn into four bases. Wrobleski is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits who has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters. There’s often value in targeting reverse-split arms because the market tends to overprice the lefty vs. lefty matchup.
Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+246)
When you’re cold, it’s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York’s Aaron Judge. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer.
This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT’s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year.
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His 2.2 HR/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBI across eight at-bats against Severino.
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Where to watch: YES, NBCS-California
Josh Inglis’ 2026 Transparency Record
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HR picks: 13-100, -32.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
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Mike Yastrzemski |
Bet Now |
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Bryce Harper |
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Aaron Judge |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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