MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks & Odds (5/22)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you’ll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, May 22.

MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks & Odds (5/22)

Twins vs. Nationals

Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. Jake Irvin (WSH)

Nationals Park is an underrated hitters’ park. It has a 106 Park Factor (sixth in MLB) from the 2021-2023 seasons, offering a 6% boost relative to a league-average run-scoring environment.

I’d set this total at 8.8 on a typical day, but the weather on Wednesday afternoon — 85 degrees at first pitch with seven mph winds blowing out to left field — should boost the number just a touch higher. I projected the total at 9.16 runs.

Bets: Over 8.5 (-115 or better)

Mets vs. Guardians

Jose Quintana (NYM) vs. Triston McKenzie (CLE)

Jose Quintana is showing career-worst indicators this season, with a 5.76 xERA and a 6.8% K-BB% that ranks in the bottom 1% of starting pitchers — and is less than half his career average (13.9%).

Triston McKenzie is likely pitching through injury, with a 4.74 xERA, a 6% K-BB% (including a 14.1% walk rate, 90 Location+), and decreased velocity (91 mph fastball, down from his career average of 92.3 mph).

However, Cleveland may need McKenzie on Wednesday. The Guardians have one of — if not the best — bullpen in baseball (2.68 xERA, first), but their key relievers are overworked. Closer Emmanuel Clase has pitched three consecutive days, Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin have thrown on back-to-back days, and Hunter Gaddis has pitched three times in five days.

I’d give the Mets the bullpen edge for Wednesday and may jump in on a live wager as Quintana exits.

I expect runs throughout. I projected this total at 9.45 with warm temperatures (72 degrees at first pitch) and 12-14 mph winds blowing out to right field.

Bets: Over 8.5 (9, -107 or better)

Angels vs. Astros

Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. Hunter Brown (HOU)

Another start for Tyler Anderson (2.72 ERA, 4.83 xERA, 4.89 xFIP) to take my money.

Nobody has run better than the Angels southpaw this season (.204 BABIP, 84% strand rate vs. .285 and 72.1% career), and I will continue to bet against him.

Anderson’s profile has no material change relative to his 2023 campaign, when he posted the same underlying indicators (4.96 xERA, 8.7% K-BB%) but pitched to a deserved 5.43 ERA.

Hunter Brown (7.71 ERA, 4.61 xERA, 11.2% K-BB%) has been highly enigmatic — and has likely been tipping pitches in specific outings — but the pitch modeling metrics (105 Stuff+, 100 Location+) and projections (projected FIP range of 3.73 to 4.17) still see an above-average starter.

I’m hesitant to double down on Brown and take the Astros in both halves, even though I show a similar projection for Houston for the first five innings (F5) and the full game.

Bets: Astros F5 Moneyline (-182 or better) | Astros Full-Game Moneyline (-182 or better) 

Padres vs. Reds

Michael King (SD) vs. Nick Martinez (CIN)

While he’s bounced between the rotation and bullpen, Nick Martinez has boosted his Stuff+ by 10 points (from 92 to 102) year over year, and he’s posted a sub-3.5 xERA for the past two-plus seasons.

Martinez has a wide range of projections (projected FIP range of 3.68 to 4.76), while Michael King (projected FIP range of 3.50 to 4.08) has a more narrow expected range of outcomes. However, I like Martinez, who is near the more optimistic end of his range.

Additionally, there’s not a substantial difference between these pitchers regarding on-field results, and pitching models aren’t as high on King (94 Stuff+, 100 Location+).

Bets: Reds F5 Moneyline (+110 or better) | Reds Full-Game Moneyline (+110 or better)

Giants vs. Pirates

Blake Snell (SF) vs. Jared Jones (PIT)

Blake Snell returns from the IL — and a Minor League rehab start — for his fourth appearance of 2024. He looked rusty after not pitching in spring (4.11 xERA, 12.1% K-BB% vs. 3.77 and 18.2% last season) but he should eventually round into form.

Still, the Pirates handle lefties (103 wRC+, 13th) far better than they do righties (80 wRC+, 28th), and I rate Jared Jones (2.96 xERA, 27.2% K-BB%) better than most starting pitchers.

Jones has elite on-field results but also leads all qualified starters with a 133 Stuff+ and 114 Pitching+; Hunter Greene (127 Stuff+) and Corbin Burnes (110 Pitching+) are the closest to him in either category.

For context, Jacob deGrom posted a 134 Stuff+ and 116 Pitching+ during his last healthy season with the Mets; Jones likely hasn’t hit his ceiling yet.

Bets: Pirates F5 Moneyline (-132 or better) | Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (-120 or better)

Rangers vs. Phillies

Dane Dunning (TEX) vs. Taijuan Walker (PHI)

Adolis Garica has missed the last two games for Texas with forearm soreness, although medical tests came back clean. I expect him to play on Wednesday evening.

His presence or absence determines whether we’re getting an edge betting on Texas overnight. With Garcia in the lineup, I’d project the Rangers as +110 underdogs, but with him out, I’d make Texas closer to +125.

Walker’s velocity (91.3 mph, down from 92.6 mph in 2023 and 93.5 mph in 2022) and pitch modeling metrics (86 Stuff+, down from 94 in 2023 and 110 in 2022) are down after he had a delayed start to the season with a shoulder impingement. He also left his last start prematurely after taking a batted ball off his foot.

A 6.30 xERA confirms that something is seriously amiss with Walker — he doesn’t seem entirely healthy.

Bets: Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (+119 or better)

Red Sox vs. Rays

Brayan Bello (BOS) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TB)

Ryan Pepiot returns from the IL on Wednesday. Before bruising his leg, he posted elite pitch modeling metrics (117 Stuff+) and an impressive 21.3% K-BB%, looking like the Rays’ best arm. He just hasn’t posted enough of a sample to improve his forecasts.

I rate Pepiot as a superior pitcher to Brayan Bello, even though projections put them in a similar bucket.

Bets: Rays Full-Game Moneyline (-132 better)

Braves vs. Cubs

Max Fried (ATL) vs. Justin Steele (CHC)

Max Fried owns a career-low 9.3% K-BB% through nine starts, which is nearly half his career average (17%). Fried’s strikeout rate is down 6.7% year over year, and his walk rate is up 4% (from 5.8% to 9.8%).

He’s never posted impressive pitch-modeling metrics or underlying indicators, but Fried suppresses hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground (career-high 64.3%). Still, seeing those strikeout and walk rates go in the wrong direction is an obvious red flag for any pitcher.

Justin Steele (5.21 ERA, 3.76 xERA) has gotten walloped this season.

If anything, Steele’s pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 107 Location+) have improved relative to last season (99 Stuff+, 102 Location+). His fastball velocity is also up half a tick. I’m unconcerned about his back-to-back rough outings against the Pirates in which he allowed 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings.

Bets: Cubs Full-Game Moneyline (+111 or better)

Rockies vs. Athletics

Austin Gomber (COL) vs. Mitch Spence (OAK)

Mitch Spence will make his second start of the season on Wednesday; the Rule 5 pick has served as a long reliever for much of the year but has posted above-average pitch modeling metrics (102 Stuff+, 101 Location+) — with a plus slider and changeup — and solid results (3.12 xERA, 15.1% K-BB%).

I view Spence (projected FIP range of 3.89 to 4.31) as a far more effective arm than Austin Gomber (projected FIP range of 4.92 to 5.13), who has outperformed expectations this season (3.02 ERA, 4.34 xERA, 8.7% K-BB%).

However, Gomber has been extremely lucky (.238 BABIP, 86.1% strand rate vs. .294 and 71.1% career) and owns a similar K-BB% and pitch modeling metrics (77 Stuff+) as his abysmal 2023 campaign (5.50 ERA, 5.74 xERA).

Bets: Athletics F5 Moneyline (-133 or better) | Athletics Full-Game Moneyline (-136 or better)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs. Tyler Glasnow (LAD)

There’s still a massive disconnect between Ryne Nelson’s encouraging pitch modeling metrics (105 Stuff+, 105 Location+) and disastrous results (5.27 xERA in 2023, 5.16 in 2024).

Models say that Nelson has three above-average pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) — none have produced a positive return per pitch value in any season. I’ll rate Nelson at the lower end of his projection range (projected FIP range of 4.32 to 4.76) until we see improved results.

The Diamondbacks offense could be a difficult matchup for Tyler Glasnow. They have above-average strikeout and chase rates and are aggressive on the basepaths. Glasnow has struggled to hold runners, permitting 95 steals on 117 attempts (81.2%) in his career, including 26 steals on 29 attempts since the start of last season.

Bets: Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (+220 or better)

Zerillo’s Bets for Wednesday, May 22

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• Arizona Diamondbacks (+260, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +220)
• Baltimore Orioles / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 9 (-114, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -105)
• Chicago Cubs F5 (+114, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to +103)
• Chicago Cubs (+122, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +111)
• Cincinnati Reds F5 (+110, 0.25u) at WynnBet (small to +110)
• Cincinnati Reds (+110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +110)
• Detroit Tigers / Kansas City Royals, F5 Under 3.5 (+100, 0.25u) at Parx (small to -105)
• Houston Astros F5 (-170, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to -185)
• Houston Astros (-172, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -182)
• Minnesota Twins / Washington Nationals, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -115)
• New York Mets / Cleveland Guardians, Over 8.5 (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -107)
• Oakland Athletics F5 (-124, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -133)
• Oakland Athletics (-125, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -136)
• Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -132)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -120)
• Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -132)
• Texas Rangers F5 (+110, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to +101)
• Texas Rangers (+128, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +119)

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