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Good morning! Remember, half a season is 81 games, not the All-Star break.
All Rise: Were these MLB stars first-half mirages?
With the MLB season hitting its halfway mark this week, due to teams having actually played 81 games each (ignore any references to the “first half” ending at the All-Star break), it’s a great time to take stock.
Instead of issuing obvious superlatives and telling you that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are the MVPs, it’s trial time at Regression Court. In this courtroom, The Pulse names a handful of players who had surprising first halves (for good or for ill) and asks MLB newsletter author Levi Weaver to issue a verdict on this question: Will the player regress to his mean, will he remain under duress or will he have continued success?
We begin with Jeremy Peña, the Astros shortstop who’s having a career year at the plate, playing slick defense and just hired Scott Boras to make sure he gets paid for all of it:
💬 I think the breakout is legit. His BABIP is .365, so he should regress a bit, but his hard-hit and line-drive percentages are career highs, and his K-rate is a career low. So are his chase rates and first-pitch swing rates. Verdict: Success.
Julio Rodríguez, the Mariners center fielder in his third straight season of offensive slippage:
💬 It has been a year and a half since we saw the breakout-superstar version of Julio Rodriguez. I think this is a fair question not just for this year, but for his career. He’s still just 24, so I’m not too concerned long-term, but I haven’t seen any reason to believe a rebound is imminent. Verdict: Duress.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs center fielder and defensive whiz who’s ridden a powerful season at the plate to a legit MVP candidacy so far:
💬 I’m trying not to nitpick about an OBP in the low .300s, so instead, let’s focus on the fact this is a 23-year-old kid who has gone 20/20 more than a month before the All-Star break. Speed doesn’t slump (and defense barely does), so I don’t know if he has more in the tank, but I do think this season is real. Verdict: Success.
Jarren Duran, the Red Sox center fielder who’s had a lousy year after defense and offense made him one of the best players in baseball in 2024:
💬 I just (finally) started watching the Red Sox series on Netflix this week, and Duran’s story is relatable for me. Perfectionism can drive you to work hard, sure. But ironically, once you get where you’re going, it’s poison. Did you know Duran was worth 8.7 bWAR last year? Fifth-best in the league. More than Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor. He’s extremely talented, but I find myself wondering if he’s still insulting himself after every mistake. If he can find some peace, a positive regression is inevitable. Hopeful verdict: Regress.
I also asked Levi about a few teams that had odd first halves. He thinks the Braves should consider selling at the trade deadline and that the Rockies are breaking the losses record. Asked to explain the excellent Rays, he only says, “That’s left to God and mystery.”
Thanks to Levi, whom you can read all the time in The Windup. Court adjourned.
News to Know
Raptors part ways with Ujiri
Masai Ujiri is out as president and vice chairman of the Toronto Raptors after 12 years. The decision to split with the executive who brought the team a championship in 2019 came just one day after the conclusion of the NBA Draft. Ujiri’s rocky relationship with Edward Rodgers, Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment’s executive chairman of the board, likely doomed his future in Toronto. But firing Ujiri raises legitimate questions about MLSE’s priorities, and leaves the Raptors in murky waters.
NHL Draft just one part of busy day
Yesterday was quite bustling. The Canadiens made a big splash in trading for Noah Dobson, John Tavares took a hometown discount to stay with the Maple Leafs and the Panthers locked up reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Sam Bennett for the next eight years.
Oh, and the ratification of the new CBA.
In case all that didn’t satisfy your hockey cravings, we also had the NHL Draft last night. Defenseman Matthew Schaefer went No. 1 as expected, while the NHL’s new “decentralized” draft format made for some incredibly awkward moments. Of course, we also have draft grades for every first-round pick here.
More news:
Watch Guide
📺 CWC: SL Benfica vs. Chelsea
4 p.m. ET on DAZN
The FIFA Club World Cup is into the round of 16. Is this tournament a bit weird? Yes, definitely. But is the bracket quite a thing to look at, with a mixture of clubs that rarely or never see each other? Also yes, in a cool way. Benfica, the big Portuguese side, have faced Chelsea just twice, both in the Champions League quarterfinals in 2012. (Chelsea won both legs.)
📺 MLB: Cubs at Astros
7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Two first-place clubs with two of the year’s most exciting players in the aforementioned Crow-Armstrong and Peña. It’s a homecoming series for ex-Astro Kyle Tucker.
Pulse Picks
Another great read from Rustin Dodd for our new desk, Peak, on the power of walking. Inspiration to get outside today.
The New York Times survey on your 10 favorite movies of this millennium produced some brutal choices. “Mean Girls” vs. “Mulholland Drive”? How could I possibly? (The final top 100 is here.) — Jason Kirk
The Athletic’s weekly sports news quiz.
Got turned on to “Common Side Effects” on HBO this week. It’s an animated show and a Cartoon Network Adult Swim show, but leans more dramatic than comedic (though the humor is still there). I’m still only four or five episodes in, but I’m definitely hooked. — Levi Weaver
Love it or loathe it, Jake Paul — set to fight tonight — has become the biggest draw in American boxing. What does that say about the sport?
Iced tea, simply. I started cold-brewing my own with leftover fruit from the week (toddlers waste a lot of fruit). A delight. — Chris Branch
John Hollinger on the worst and weirdest moves of the 2025 NBA Draft. Click.
This chocolate chia pudding, with a sweetness level that’s adaptable to your breakfast, snack or dessert preferences. — Torrey Hart
Thursday’s USWNT win offered a poetic checkpoint for coach Emma Hayes one year into the job, as Tamerra Griffin writes.
No longer thinking of boiling water for anything from tea to pasta as a test of patience is a little kitchen miracle. Our cheap Cosori is splendid. The cousins at Wirecutter have more. — Chris Sprow
Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Dan Pompei’s feature on the unique relationship between 22-year-old Bucky Irving and 86-year-old Tom Moore.
Most-read on the website yesterday: The NHL Draft live blog.
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(Top photo: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
