Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas Odds, Prediction & Prop Bets

• Naoya Inoue and Ramon Cardenas meet in a Super Bantamweight bout on Sunday night
• The current Inoue vs Cardenas odds have Inoue as a virtual lock over Cardenas
• Check out our full Inoue vs Cardenas odds, prediction, and prop bets to make below

Naoya Inoue expects to fight twice more this year, but first, the undisputed Super Bantamweight champion will take on Ramon Cardenas this Sunday, May 4th, when they rumble at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Plans are in the works for Inoue to fight again in the United States as soon as early next year.

The numbers continue to roll in as the Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas odds lock Inoue as a whopping betting favorite with his edge in power, more power, and creativity. Now, the No.1 WBA contender (Cardenas) is far from a tomato can.

Will Inoue lift his knockout rate to 90%, or can Cardenas shock the entire universe? We broke down the Sunday night matchup, looked at more odds, and are ready to make our Inoue vs Cardenas prediction and prop bets.

Inoue vs Cardenas Odds

The Inoue vs Cardenas odds at DraftKings Sportsbook have Naoya Inoue as a -5000 favorite, giving him a 98.04% implied probability of victory. Ramon Cardenas comes in at +1500, or a 6.25% implied probability.

Odds as of May 4, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to look at those DraftKings promos to wager on Inoue vs Cardenas.

A Few Inoue vs Cardenas Props

I start the props early for this fight. We listed a few to focus on:

My first pick here is Inoue KO/TKO with 2+ knockdowns. Given the immense moneyline, -155 represents reasonable value. His ability to create angles plus the power at 122 pounds dwarfs most other fighters. Inoue is also fighting someone his age but certainly not his stature. 

For knockdowns, there are choices anywhere from 2+ knockouts up to five for Inoue (+1100). Instead of going too high, maybe lean on three as a round number. That rolls in at +160 and may stay there.

Fight Information + Viewing Options

The event will be streaming live around the globe on ESPN+, Disney+, and Sky Sports. Now, the main card begins approximately at 10:00 pm ET.

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Naoya Inoue Boxing Analysis

At age 32, Naoya Inoue (29-0, 26 KOs) fights another No 1 WBA contender in Cardenas. This is his fifth defense of the undisputed titles. Every fight as a Super Bantamweight has resulted in either a KO or TKO.

In his previous few fights, Inoue has tried some new techniques and combinations. Inoue changes angles often which sometimes leaves him vulnerable. However, Cardenas does not have the punching power of other Super Bantamweights. Inoue’s trainers expect the fighter to get knockout number 27 on Sunday night.

Ramon Cardenas Boxing Analysis

Ramon Cardenas only has one loss (26-1, 14 KOs) and the top WBA contender (#9 via The Ring). Remember, the Texan wants to hand Inoue his first loss but he has to avoid the elusive Inoue while landing enough power shots to at least slow Inoue down. Cardenas has the ability but it is that left which does get a little bit of attention.

Now, does Cardenas get too enamored with those left-handed combinations? That is the concern. Cardenas throws solid body shots and jabs. However, his cross and uppercut are considered among the top fighters in the division.

While a knockout feels unlikely, a knockdown is at least possible. People forget that the champion has hit the mat in his career before (Luis Nery in 2024). If Cardenas wants to have a chance, he will need to use his speed, defense, with power to keep Inoue unbalanced throughout the fight.

Inoue vs Cardenas Tale of the Tape

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas Prediction

Ramon Cardenas would not be this much of an underdog against any other fighter. Now watching Inoue is like watching an elusive mongoose. Every so often you can catch him but he usually strikes one down before delivering the fatal blow. Inoue studies the boxing science so well and incorporates subtle changes into each subsequent fight. The only concern is does Inoue get caught looking ahead as he potentially seeks to conquer a fifth division (126 pounds)?

My picks all involve Inoue to get the job done and notch knockout 27 on Sunday night. Based on rounds per fight, opponent, and training, a knockout in Rounds 4-6 is our best bet for group betting.

• Inoue vs Cardenas Pick: Inoue to win between Rounds 4-6 (+175 at DraftKings)
• Best Bet: Cardenas to be knocked down 3+ times (+160 at DraftKings)