Will anyone force a Game 7 on Friday night?
Three Game 6 matchups are set for the first day of May, as the Los Angeles Lakers, Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to win and advance to the second round of the NBA Playoffs:
- Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic (Magic lead 3-2)
- Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors (Cavs lead 3-2)
- Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets (Lakers lead 3-2)
Detroit extended its season with a win in Game 5 behind 45 points from Cade Cunningham, and it remains favored in Game 6. There have only been 13 times where a team came back from a 3-1 deficit in NBA history, but the Pistons are in a pretty good position to make it happen with Franz Wagner (calf) injured for the No. 8-seeded Magic.
Staying in the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to close out the Toronto Raptors in Game 6, where they are 4.5-point road favorites. Cleveland came back to win Game 5 with both Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram (heel did not return) getting banged up in that matchup.
Out West, the Lakers are looking to avoid a Game 7 after dropping back-to-back games to the Kevin Durant-less Rockets. L.A. is an underdog in Game 6, and it needs one more win to avoid being the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead.
I have a play for each of these games on May 1, including sides in the Pistons-Magic and Lakers-Rockets matchups. Let’s take a look at the latest odds and my analysis for each of these bets on Friday night.
1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record
- 2025-26 season record: 277-237 (-2.06 units)
- 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
- OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1568-1475-27 (+31.09 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Orlando Magic +3.5 (-110) vs. Detroit Pistons
- Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (-105) vs. Houston Rockets
- RJ Barrett OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-142)
Orlando Magic +3.5 (-110) vs. Detroit Pistons
Are the Pistons really going to complete a 3-1 comeback?
Detroit needs to win two games to make it happen, but it’s only happened 13 times (under 5.0 percent) in NBA history. So, if the betting market is going to give me a chance to take the Magic as underdogs, I’m going to take it.
History suggests Orlando will win one of the next two games, and it covered as a 9.5-point underdog in Game 5.
The Magic are 9-4 against the spread as home underdogs, including two outright wins in this series. Meanwhile, Detroit is 13-20 against the spread when favored on the road.
It took 45 points (and 44 minutes) from Cade Cunningham for the Pistons to squeak by Orlando at home, and even with Franz Wagner banged up, I believe the Magic can win this game outright. The Pistons have still not gotten a ton of production from Jalen Duren, and I’m not counting on a 20-plus point showing from Tobias Harris on the road.
I’ll take the points in Game 6 – and likely will again on Sunday if there is a Game 7.
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (-105) vs. Houston Rockets
No team in NBA history has completed a 3-0 series comeback, so I don’t mind getting 3.5 points with the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 6 of this series.
The Rockets have gone 18-25 against the spread at home (second-worst mark in the NBA) and 17-23 against the spread as a home favorite this season, and they still are missing their best player with Durant out.
The Lakers had a lot of things go wrong for them in Game 5, and yet they only lost that game by six points. L.A. lost the turnover battle 15 to 10, and Luke Kennard (1 point on 0-of-4 shooting) and Austin Reaves (22 points but on 4-of-16 shooting) really struggled from the field. On top of that, L.A. made just seven of its 27 shots from beyond the arc.
I expect a bounce-back showing from Reaves in Game 6, and his presence immediately improves the Lakers offense.
Houston has still struggled in this series on offense outside of Game 4, and I’m not positive it can win three games in a row against L.A.
I’ll take the points with the Lakers, and I’ll likely bet on them again in Game 7 (if the series reaches that point) since history suggests they’ll eventually advance.
RJ Barrett OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-142)
Toronto Raptors wing RJ Barrett may end up with a huge role in Game 6 after Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes were both banged up in Game 5.
Barrett led the way for the Raptors in Game 5, scoring 25 points to go along with 12 rebounds and five assists. He’s going to be asked to be on the ball more regardless, as Toronto is without starting point guard Immanuel Quickley.
In this series, RJ has five, 14, 10, nine and 17 rebounds and assists, and he’s averaging 11.0 rebound chances per game.
That gives Barrett a pretty solid floor in this market, especially if the Raptors rely on him more as a primary option on offense.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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