A potential NBA Finals preview highlights the early part of Wednesday’s NBA action as the New York Knicks host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a nationally televised game.
Both squads are playing the second night of a back-to-back, but it’s one of the three games that I’m targeting in today’s edition of Peter’s Points. The start of Wednesday’s six-game slate is awesome, as the Knicks-Thunder clash is followed up by the surging Charlotte Hornets taking on the Boston Celtics in what could be a first-round playoff matchup in the East this season.
Let’s take a look at the full slate of games on March 4:
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks
- Charlotte Hornets vs. Boston Celtics
- Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
I’m treading water in recent days with my best NBA plays, but I’m hoping to turn things around on Wednesday with a total, a player prop and a two-team parlay (using some alternate spreads).
Here’s my analysis – and the latest odds – for each pick on March 4.
1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record
- 2025-26 season record: 191-158 (+4.23 units)
- 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
- OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1482-1395-27 (+37.39 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Oklahoma City Thunder-New York Knicks UNDER 222.5 (-110)
- Ryan Rollins OVER 12.5 Points (-112)
- Atlanta Hawks-Los Angeles Clippers Alternate Line Parlay (-156)
Oklahoma City Thunder-New York Knicks UNDER 222.5 (-110)
The Knicks have quietly been one of the best defensive teams in the league recently, ranking third in defensive rating over their last 15 games and first over their last 10. Now, the Knicks are seventh in the NBA in defensive rating for the season, making them an intriguing UNDER team on Wednesday against OKC.
The Thunder and Knicks are both in the top five in the NBA in opponent points per game, and OKC remains No. 1 in the league in defensive rating after allowing just 108 points to Chicago on Tuesday.
The Knicks have a top-five offensive rating this season, but they’re just 23rd in the league in pace, which has allowed them to play some lower-scoring games.
Both of these teams have hit the UNDER in five of 10 games that were the second night of a back-to-back, and there is a recent trend with New York that I can’t pass up.
The UNDER has hit in 15 of the Knicks’ last 21 games. Since New York has the best ATS record at home in the NBA, I’m going to stay away from a side and trust both of these defenses on Wednesday night.
Ryan Rollins OVER 12.5 Points (-112)
Milwaukee Bucks guard Ryan Rollins has put together an impressive 2025-26 season, averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting 46.6 percent from the field and 41.1 percent from 3.
Doc Rivers moved Rollins to the bench on Monday in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s return, but it did not work out, as Milwaukee was blown out by the Boston Celtics.
Rollins finished with just five points (2-for-11 from the field), but he still took a lot of shots despite playing less than 25 minutes. I think the Bucks are going to go to Rollins more on Wednesday, and he has a favorable matchup against a Hawks team that is No. 3 in the league in pace this season.
That should lead to more possessions for both teams, and Rollins had 14 points (with Giannis in action) in the lone meeting between these teams this season.
After a strong month of February where he averaged 20.9 points per game, Rollins is a little undervalued at this number on Wednesday. Giannis should eat into his workload a bit, but I expect Rivers to realize that the Bucks’ best chance to win is if the two-time MVP and Rollins share the floor more going forward.
Atlanta Hawks-Los Angeles Clippers Alternate Line Parlay (-156)
I’m intrigued by both the Atlanta Hawks and Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, so I decided to move the lines in both games for a little two-team parlay.
Atlanta Hawks +8.5
Atlanta has won four games in a row and is within striking distance of the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, and I think it should be favored on the road against the Bucks.
Milwaukee has Giannis back – but he’s on a minutes restriction – and it remains one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season (24th in defensive rating).
The Hawks are 12-8 against the spread as road underdogs this season, and they’ve actually won more road games (17) than home games (14) in the 2025-26 campaign. On top of that, the Bucks have the second-worst ATS record as a home favorite (4-7) in the league.
Boston dominated the Bucks on Monday night, and the Hawks should be able to hang around and potentially pull off the upset in this game. Atlanta has a net rating of +4.2 over its last 10 games, and it’s worth noting that Milwaukee is still under .500 in the games that Giannis has played in this season.
This price is giving the Bucks way too much credit for having Giannis back, especially since he’s only playing about half the game. I’ll take in a potential upset spot on Wednesday.
Los Angeles Clippers -4.5
The Clippers have not been elite against the spread when favored at home this season, but I’m buying them against this Pacers team.
Indiana is down Ivica Zubac on Wednesday, and it could be without Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith as well (they are all listed as questionable). The Pacers have just one win this season when Siakam sits, and they are one of the worst road teams in the league.
Not only is Indiana dead last in the NBA in offensive rating on the road, but it has won just five of 29 road games while posting a net rating of -11.4.
As a road underdog, the Pacers are just 11-15 against the spread.
Indiana clearly wants to lose to retain its pick in the 2026 NBA Draft (top-four protected) while the Clippers could inch even closer to the No. 8 seed with a win. I’ll trust Los Angeles to win a third game in a row tonight.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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