Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals could be a coronation for the Oklahoma City Thunder, as they are one win away from a second straight trip to the NBA Finals, where they will likely be heavy favorites against the New York Knicks.
The only thing standing in their way? A French phenom that has no intention of going easily in the playoffs. The San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama are favored at home in Game 6, as they need two wins to take this series and reach the NBA Finals for the first time since the Tim Duncan era.
Oklahoma City took Game 5 behind big games from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain and Alex Caruso, and Mark Daigneault continues to pull all the potential rotation scenarios he can find with Ajay Mitchell (calf) and Jalen Williams (hamstring) banged up. Mitchell is out for Game 6 while Williams is listed as questionable.
Oddsmakers seem to think that a Game 7 will happen, setting the Spurs as 3.5-point favorites after they were just 1.5-point favorites at home in Games 3 and 4.
So, how should we bet on this Western Conference Finals showdown?
I’m taking a side and a player prop in what could be the final NBA game before the Finals begin on June 3.
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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (-146)
Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 (-110) vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Thunder were 1.5-point underdogs in Game 4 and ended up losing by 21 points, but they responded with a strong Game 5 performance, shooting 43.8 percent from 3 and scoring 127 points.
I think that the movement in the spread for this game is a little crazy, as oddsmakers shifted things by two points after the Spurs played arguably their worst offensive game in this series.
San Antonio is playing with an increased sense of urgency since the season could end on Thursday night, but I still think the Thunder are worth a bet with this spread set just outside one possession.
OKC seemed to figure some things out offensively with Jared McCain in the starting lineup, and the Thunder have now won three games by nine or more points with one of their two losses coming in double overtime.
San Antonio’s offense has some major issues – especially when it comes to 3-point shooting in turnovers – as the Spurs are now 11th out of 16th playoff teams in turnover percentage this postseason.
Gilgeous-Alexander has found ways to beat the Spurs’ attack in every game, and an improved shooting performance in Game 5 took the Thunder from 82 points and a 21-point loss in Game 4 to 127 points and a 13-point win in Game 5.
I don’t think there’s a massive gap between these teams, but I do believe the experience of the Thunder has shone through in the big moments in this series. OKC may not win Game 6, but I’ll gladly take the 3.5-point cushion in what feels like a toss-up game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 7.5 Assists (-146)
This postseason, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone to another level as a playmaker.
After averaging 6.6 assists per game in the regular season, Shai is now averaging 8.2 assists per game in the playoffs, recording 15.4 potential assists per game.
Teams have thrown double teams at him, and the Spurs have really stacked the paint to stop him, yet he continues to make the right reads.
In this series. SGA is averaging 9.8 assists per game, clearing this line in four of the five matchups. He had nine dimes in Game 5, and he only fell short of this total (finishing with seven assists) in Game 4 with the Spurs holding OKC to just 82 points and most of the Thunder team struggling to make shots.
Even though the two-time MVP is known for his scoring, I think his passing has been very underrated this postseason, and the prop market hasn’t fully adjusted. In fact, SGA has 12, nine, 12, seven and nine dimes in this series, so I’d even consider betting this line at 8.5.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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