NBA Expert Pick, Odds (Sunday, May 26)

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds

Here’s everything you need to know about Timberwolves vs. Mavericks on Sunday, May 26 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today’s game.

Luka Dončić snatched the Minnesota Timberwolves’ soul Friday night with a dagger 3 over the Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, to capture a come-from-behind victory and a 2-0 series lead on the road. Now, the Timberwolves need to make NBA history in order to mount a comeback. Teams up 2-0 after starting on the road are 16-0 in the conference finals, per Matt Moore.

Can Minnesota bounce back or will the Dallas Mavericks take a 3-0 lead and start booking flights to Boston? Let’s dive into our Timberwolves vs. Mavericks prediction.

The biggest issue for the Timberwolves is they have lost two clutch games with their offense struggling down the stretch and their defense unable to find answers for Dončić. The clear bright spot is actually Gobert. Despite the Dončić game winner coming over his head, he has been by far the most impactful player in this series for the Wolves.

The problems have come in the non-Gobert minutes, which they have consistently lost with one or both of Naz Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor without Gobert during these playoffs. While Reid distracted us a bit from this because of his electric shooting performance (7-of-9 from 3) in Game 2, the defense is a problem. While it’s a small sample size, the Wolves have a 121 Defensive Rating with Naz Reid on the floor — even that type of offensive performance is not going to cut it if that’s the defensive performance.

On offense, Anthony Edwards has had some difficulty as well. He has scored 19 and 21 points this series on just 33% shooting. The Michael Jordan comparisons have turned into Dillon Brooks ones. While that’s obviously slanderous, Edwards has not been good enough. But this is not only on Edwards; his co-star in Towns has not been good enough either.

Towns is averaging just 15.5 points on an abysmal 27.8% shooting. Fortunately, he has been better on the road than at home, so the trip to Dallas might help him out. In the playoffs, he has 20+ points in 5-of-6 road games and averages 23.2. On the season as a whole, he has 20+ points in 72% of road games compared to just 38% of home games. Towns is a road warrior. The Wolves will need him to be better incorporated into the lineup and the scoring for any long term success. Edwards has often made the right reads, but his teammates have been unable to convert.

The Mavericks have been excellent when trusting the offense to Dončić and Kyrie Irving this series. They have averaged 32.5 PPG and 25 PPG, respectively, in these two games. Ultimately, the Timberwolves have tried to throw a variety of coverages at Dončić in particular; however, he has continually beat them at every turn. He knows how to distribute when doubled and can score with ease whenever he’s presented with a drop.

The key for Dallas so far has been its defense though. They are constantly disrupting the Timberwolves’ process, but it does seem to be hanging by a thread. Minnesota has an expected eFG% of 55.1% during these two games but an actual of 51.2%; they are significantly underperforming and are shooting just 53.8% at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass.

While Dallas has won these two games, they’ve lost both first halves. They have struggled to get into their full process until late in games, likely because of some of the rotational decisions being made to preserve Dončić and Irving for the late-game pushes. Minnesota should be able to exploit this in a desperation spot.

I expect the Timberwolves to come into Dallas in desperation mode. They absolutely need to lay it all out on the court to start this game.

Minnesota has been a strong first half team during the playoffs with a +1.7 Net Rating, while Dallas actually has a -5 Net Rating in this spot. They are a team that bides their time, then pounces on their opponent later in the game.

Given the motivation and the underlying metrics, I expect the Timberwolves to make an early push and I want no part of any late-game heroics from Dončić.

Pick: Timberwolves 1H Moneyline

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