It’s finally here. We’ve been waiting for the Western Conference finals since December, when the San Antonio Spurs beat the Oklahoma City Thunder three times in 12 days and kickstarted what we expect to be the defining NBA rivalry of the decade. Even in this chaotic league, nothing could avert their collision course. Both made it through the first two rounds comfortably and are now the first set of 62-win teams to face off in a playoff series since the 1998 NBA Finals.
Now the most anticipated playoff series in years can begin. Victor Wembanyama will attempt to reach his first NBA Finals in just his third NBA season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is defending not only his championship, but his standing as the two-time MVP with Wembanyama breathing down his neck for the title of “best player in the world.”
Whoever wins this series will enter the NBA Finals as heavy favorites, and perhaps more importantly, establish themselves as the league-wide alpha moving forward. Two potential dynasties kick off their first postseason clash tonight. Here’s what you need to know:
May 18 playoff schedule
Odds via FanDuel, all times ET
- Game 1: San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (-6.5), 8:30 p.m. — NBC, Peacock
Prediction
Even if you’re picking the Thunder to win the series, there’s a lot to like about the Spurs going into Game 1. Their 4-1 season series advantage was decisive, and it suggests that while the Thunder may have answers for the Spurs available to them, they didn’t get to any of them during the regular season. Jalen Williams is playing his first game since injuring his hamstring in the first round, so we don’t yet know how he’ll look. Besides, this is a pretty significant step up in terms of intensity. Nobody has stressed the Thunder yet. The Timberwolves at least made the Spurs sweat in the last round. San Antonio is more likely to be in fighting shape, at least mentally.
So much of Oklahoma City’s offense depends on Gilgeous-Alexander’s rim pressure. Wembanyama neutralizes a lot of it. The Thunder have potential solutions, most notably the potential for true five-out lineups, but nobody has yet solved San Antonio’s alien, and my suspicion is that it takes a few games of trial and error to land on a workable answer. The Thunder may win this series, but I’m taking the points and going with the Spurs in Game 1. The Pick: Spurs +6.5
