The NBA’s MVP race may be decided by injury.
With the league’s 65-game threshold threatening to take stars out of the mix, the award is up for grabs in a way it hasn’t been in years.
To be eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, All-NBA, and All-Defensive teams, players can miss a maximum of 17 games in a season under the so-called “65-game rule” implemented ahead of the 2023-24 season.
Availability is now as important as production. In an 82-game schedule, 65 is the magic number. Once a player hits 18 missed games, he’s automatically disqualified — no matter how dominant he’s been or how well his team has played.
The rule was designed to curb “load management” and reward regular-season participation. Instead, it’s now reshaping the 2025-26 MVP race, and throwing the betting public and oddsmakers alike for a spin.
The current favorite, reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sits at -140 at BetMGM Sportsbook to repeat, but he may not log enough games to qualify. The Thunder star will miss his 10th game of the season Tuesday night and is expected to remain sidelined at least a few more games with an abdominal strain that has kept him out since early February.
Fellow perennial contender Nikola Jokic, the second-favorite at +275, is walking an even thinner line. After missing roughly a month with a knee hyperextension, Jokic is just two missed games away from elimination.
Victor Wembanyama, the Defensive Player of the Year favorite, can afford to miss only three more games. Luka Doncic’s margin sits around five.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Steph Curry are already out of contention entirely after extended absences.
That reality opens the door for Cade Cunningham.
The breakout Pistons star has quietly built a compelling case while staying on the floor, leading a surprising Detroit team to the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Cunningham has missed just six games this season, giving him a comfortable cushion to absorb a few more absences and still clear the 65-game mark.
As the favorites flirt with that 18-game line, Cunningham’s path grows clearer by the week.
His odds have surged from +1300 to +450 at BetMGM, which are the third-best odds at the sportsbook, over the last seven days as bettors react to the mounting uncertainty surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic, and others.
The MVP race is no longer just about who plays the best.
It’s about who plays enough.
Cunningham may just be the last man standing.
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Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
