The 2026 season has produced exciting finishes, surprising upsets and plenty of intrigue. Now conference tournament week has arrived, and with it a chance for historic selections (and snubs) for this year’s NCAA tournament field. Here’s what to know and what to expect.
Static seeding might continue
With the two strongest conferences already crowning champions and owning six of eight seeds, there won’t be much change the rest of the way.
Northwestern, North Carolina, Maryland, Johns Hopkins, Syracuse and Michigan seem poised to occupy those six spots. That leaves just Navy (16-1) and Stony Brook (15-2) still playing this week.
Without a loss by either team, it will be incredibly difficult for Florida (14-2) or Colorado (12-3) to crack the top eight. More importantly, how will the committee parse the profile of the Mids or Seawolves when neither have a victory over another seeded team?
Will Notre Dame make the field?
One debate that wasn’t solved last week is whether Notre Dame deserves a spot in the field. The Fighting Irish fell in the ACC semifinals and saw their RPI drop to 29th, an almost unpickable number.
Nevertheless, Notre Dame has significant victories over Michigan and Boston College to help its cause. The biggest blemish on the resume is a loss to Virginia, whose loss to the Fighting Irish opened the door for another bubble team to make the field and had a downstream effect (more on that later).
As it stands, a 29th-rated Notre Dame would be the fourth-lowest RPI at-large in tournament history behind 2023’s Penn State (32nd), and a pair of ACC teams who were 31st (2024 Duke, 2017 Louisville).
The numbers game
On the flip side of history, the highest-rated teams to miss the tournament since it expanded beyond 26 teams in 2018 were all No. 22:
- 2019 UMass
- 2022 Temple
- 2024 Navy
- 2025 Dartmouth
As of this writing, No. 22 is Loyola. The Greyhounds were beneficiaries of Virginia’s loss and are back in this week’s field, but a different team got knocked down a peg.
Virginia was the most notable victory for James Madison, which was among the last four in last week. Now without that win, coupled with its losses to Pitt (RPI No. 40) and Cornell (RPI No. 26), the Dukes dropped to the first team out. More noteworthy is that the Dukes are currently No. 20 in the RPI and no team that high has missed the NCAA tournament with a winning record since the field expansion in 2018.
Princeton at No. 21 has won four straight to reach its best RPI since the beginning of April and is now projected in the field. Must-win season is here and the Tigers can’t afford another loss to Penn in Friday’s Ivy League semifinals.
Notes: Records against the RPI top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Sunday, April 26), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For the 2025 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)
Team |
RPI |
SOS |
T1-20 |
T21-40 |
TOP WIN |
LOSSES 30+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern* | 1 | 1 | 11-2 | 0-1 | North Carolina (2) | Ohio State (34) |
| North Carolina* | 2 | 10 | 7-1 | 5-0 | Syracuse (6) | — |
| Stony Brook | 4 | 23 | 3-2 | 5-0 | Colorado (10) | — |
| Florida | 8 | 22 | 3-2 | 4-0 | Colorado (10) | — |
| Navy | 9 | 33 | 3-0 | 5-1 | Florida (8) | — |
| South Florida | 14 | 44 | 1-3 | 1-1 | James Madison (20) | — |
| Denver | 17 | 36 | 0-3 | 4-0 | Georgetown (27) | — |
| Yale | 19 | 37 | 1-2 | 3-1 | Michigan (7) | — |
| Richmond | 24 | 55 | 1-2 | 1-1 | South Florida (14) | — |
| Fairfield | 28 | 70 | 0-2 | 1-0 | Hofstra (38) | UConn (47) |
| UMass | 30 | 88 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Dartmouth (41) | UConn (47) |
| Delaware | 34 | 69 | 0-2 | 1-1 | Jacksonville (37) | Temple (48) |
| UAlbany | 39 | 63 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Bryant (49) | UConn (47), Vermont (50) |
| Mercer | 59 | 66 | 0-3 | 1-0 | Arizona State (35) | 3 losses vs. 30+ |
| Stonehill | 87 | 115 | 0-0 | 0-0 | LIU (83) | 6 losses vs. 30+ |
Northwestern earned the AQ in thrilling fashion with an overtime win over Maryland, its seventh win over top 10 teams … North Carolina won the ACC’s AQ and has locked in a top-two seed … Stony Brook’s RPI remains high, but it lacks a major victory this year. The Seawolves will be in the bottom half of the seeded ranks should they win the CAA tournament.
Florida hosts the Big 12 tournament and needs to win it to remain in contention for a seed … Navy’s RPI dropped again, now to ninth. The Mids’ win over Florida is the cornerstone of its profile … South Florida was a high riser in the RPI, now up to 14th. The Bulls might get in even without a tournament title in the American.
Denver rightly earned the Big East regular season title by handling Georgetown. The Pioneers might still be in must-win territory regardless … Yale dropped its Ivy League regular season finale at Cornell to fall to 19th in the RPI — not close enough to the bubble, but a loss in the Ivy League semifinals would give the committee pause … Richmond should rely on the Atlantic 10’s auto bid, as any loss would be highly damaging.
Fairfield hosts the MAAC semifinals and finals beginning with sixth-seeded Quinnipiac Friday afternoon … UMass faces host Robert Morris in the MAC semifinals on Thursday morning … Delaware wrapped up a perfect inaugural Atlantic Sun campaign but must travel to Jacksonville for the ASUN tournament.
Three teams tied for 5-1 in the America East. While Vermont has the No. 1 seed, UAlbany has the highest RPI. The Great Danes must get by the Bryant Bulldogs Friday night … Mercer rolled off another perfect Big South regular season to earn hosting rights … Stonehill travels to not-yet-NCAA-tournament eligible Le Moyne for the NEC tournament as the No. 2 seed this weekend.
