NCAA Tournament 2025 Bracket Watch: Auburn and Duke avoidance is a smart Final Four play

(Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

If you’re a team that would like to make the Final Four in April, it would behoove you to not have to play Auburn or Duke along the way. That’s becoming clearer.

It’s so clear, it will be said many times between now and the tournament, inevitably leading to one of them falling to an 8-9 seed in the first weekend — how about Dan Hurley and UConn going all “two rings” on Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils, as this week’s bracket makes possible? That’s the beauty of this tournament, which needs no tweaks and certainly no expansion. Things like that happen every year.

Still, logic and probability say: Avoid those two. The best way? Be a No. 1 seed. The legit contenders for the other two spots? I count four.

Auburn actually isn’t playing its best basketball of the season right now, but the Tigers have supreme late-game confidence. And they have Johni Broome, whose 31 and 14 ensured Georgia wouldn’t make things too interesting Saturday. Duke did things to Illinois on Saturday at Madison Square Garden, in a 110-67 eyeful that wasn’t as close as the final score, to shush talk of a weak ACC potentially costing Cooper and the fighting Flaggs a No. 1 seed.

That’s a No. 1 seed. Show me a couple of stunning ACC upsets in the last few weeks of the regular season and/or the conference tournament and we can talk. But for now, Duke gets set aside with Auburn.

This week’s other No. 1 seeds, Florida and Alabama, obviously belong in the discussion. So do the top No. 2 seeds, Tennessee and Houston in that order. I’m dropping Texas A&M from the race at the moment after the Vols’ impressive road win against the Aggies on Saturday, in which UT senior point guard Zakai Zeigler kept making his All-America case with a second-half takeover.

The Aggies remain a No. 2 seed. If they win at Florida and beat Auburn at home before the regular season ends, are they right back in the discussion? Absolutely. Iowa State could get healthy and go on a tear, too. Even the top two No. 3 seeds, Wisconsin and Michigan State, could in theory make cases by dominating from here, though both likely have the 2-line as a ceiling.

Logic and probability say Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and Houston are going to battle it out for the last two No. 1 seeds. Along with Auburn and Duke, that’s your top six right now both in resume metrics and predictive metrics. As a reminder, the top No. 2 can’t be matched up with the No. 1 overall seed — almost certainly Auburn. But it could still get the other monster.

So here’s what’s ahead before the conference tourneys that could swing things. Houston gets a return visit from Kansas and goes to Baylor. Tennessee goes to Ole Miss. Florida has the aforementioned Texas A&M game and also travels to Alabama. Alabama travels to Tennessee. And hosts Mississippi State. And goes to Auburn.

We could come back around in a couple of weeks to No. 1 Alabama. Or to No. 3 seed Alabama. The likelihood is something in between and one heck of a nap needed before the Crimson Tide trek to Nashville.

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Chad Baker-Mazara: Michael Chang / Getty Images)