New jobs forecast shows Houston’s economy expected to cool, some job growth in 2026

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — New job forecasts show the Houston area economy could cool next year, but job growth is still expected.

When it comes to help-wanted signs across the Houston area, experts said they’ll still be out there next year, but maybe not as many as before.

“I wouldn’t say it’s like a rapid growth, but I would say it’s really healthy and consistent with a city that’s really growing,” Workforce Solutions economist Mohammad Ahmadizadeh explained.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that following the pandemic, the Houston area added about 100,000 jobs a year. A figure that fell last year, according to data.

However, the Greater Houston Partnership still forecasted a strong number of 70,000 jobs for 2025. Now, Greater Houston Partnership economic research manager Colin Baker isn’t sure it’ll reach half of that figure.

“We were expecting a bit of a rosier environment going into 2025,” Baker explained. “We’ve seen a lot of uncertainty really grip many businesses.”

Experts say tariffs, immigration, and oil prices impacted our area. Now, they’ve forecasted what next year could bring.

Normally, experts said the Houston area adds between 50,000 and 60,000 jobs a year. Workforce Solutions and the Greater Houston Partnership are forecasting about 20,000 less than that number.

One reason why is that oil prices could continue to decline, impacting jobs locally, experts say. “We know that with upstream companies, once you reach that level, many begin to pull back on new exploration and new drilling,” Baker said.

There are industries the forecasts show could add jobs next year, including health care, government, and leisure and hospitality. Other careers are growing as well, experts say.

“There is a lot of growth in what we call middle-skilled jobs,” Greater Houston Partnership senior vice president of research, Holly Heard, explained. “Jobs that require some sort of post-secondary education or training, but not necessarily a bachelor’s degree.”

Some Houston City College students are hoping this training pays off. Cheyenne Hathaway graduates in May with a degree in artificial intelligence.

“I think it would be a lot more complicated and potentially nerve-wracking,” Hathaway said. To help students, HCC offers several programs, including the reconnect scholarship, which gives students a second chance to come back to school and earn their degree.

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