There have been some wild rides in the betting market in regard to the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, including in 2022 when Aidan Hutchinson was a large favorite, only to be overtaken by Travon Walker on the odds board shortly before the draft. The Jaguars indeed took Walker No. 1 overall.
This year, there isn’t much doubt at No. 1.
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Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has been expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft by the Las Vegas Raiders for months, and it would be an absolute shock if anyone else’s name was called as the top selection on Thursday, April 23, in Pittsburgh.
The NFL Draft is less of a betting event for casual bettors, but markets do exist on a lot of picks — and BetMGM has odds on every pick in the top 10. Be sure to check out all of Yahoo Sports’ NFL mock drafts as well.
Here is a mock draft of the top 10 selections, based on choosing the current betting favorite at each slot (and updated after the Cincinnati Bengals traded the No. 10 overall pick for DT Dexter Lawrence):
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (-10000)
The Raiders just signed Kirk Cousins, so they have an option for a veteran to start if they want Mendoza to sit. But this pick has been decided for a while. New head coach Klint Kubiak is hopeful he drafts his franchise QB here at No. 1.
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2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, Edge/LB, Ohio State (-300)
The Jets added several veteran defensive pieces in free agency (T’Vondre Sweat, Demario Davis, Minkah Fizpatrick, Kingsley Enagbare, etc.) but certainly can use an infusion of talent on the defensive line. New York was 31st in sacks last season. It seems like this pick will be either Reese or David Bailey, and these odds have been on the move. Reese was a hefty -285 favorite to go No. 2 overall, before Bailey flipped to the favorite last week. The odds have been shifting between the two players, although Reese has become a bigger favorite to start draft week.
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3. Arizona Cardinals: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech (+145)
The Cardinals need pass rushers to slow down the loaded offenses in the NFC West and currently lack enough elite ones to do just that. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is a late riser here, and now has the second-best odds (+170) to go No. 3 overall, followed by Reese (+275) and Miami (FL) offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa.
4. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (-125)
The Titans added WR Wan’Dale Robinson in free agency, but this season is all about seeing QB Cam Ward’s progression with more offensive playmakers. Love — clearly the best RB in the draft — would certainly help make Tennessee’s offense more dynamic. There are plenty of value questions about taking a RB at No. 4, but Love may be too good for the Titans to pass on. Bailey and Sonny Styles have the second-best odds at +450.
5. New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State (+200)
There are a bunch of different ways the Giants can go with the first pick in new head coach John Harbaugh’s first draft, but the dynamic Ohio State linebacker is the current betting favorite. Ohio State safety Caleb Downs (+300) and Mauigoa (+350) and have the next-best odds to go No. 5.
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6. Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate, WR Ohio State (+275)
The Browns had to completely overhaul their offensive line this offseason, but they could still use more help. They also need more receiving help outside of Jerry Jeudy for whomever is starting at QB. Tate is the current favorite to be picked sixth, with Styles (+300) right behind him.
This is where it gets interesting. Love (+250) is the betting favorite for the Commanders at No. 7 as well, followed by Styles (+350) and Tate (+400). It’s possible Love falls all the way to No. 7, but for the purposes of a mock draft, we have to select the player with the best odds who hasn’t been taken yet, and that is LSU’s Delane — the top-ranked CB on the board. Washington’s defense has added pieces on every level this offseason in free agency, but could use more help on the back end.
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8. New Orleans Saints: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State (+250)
Tyson, the gifted but oft-injured wideout from Arizona State is the betting favorite to be taken at No. 8, with Delane (+400) and Tate (+450) right behind him. Rueben Bain Jr. had been the favorite to go at No. 8 up until this past weekend.
9. Kansas City Chiefs: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami (FL) (+375)
This is a premium pick for the Chiefs — their first top-10 pick since 2017 — a team used to drafting late in Round 1. And the odds reflect the uncertainty of how the board may play out, and what Kansas may do. Bain Jr. (+375) is the favorite at BetMGM, followed by Spencer Fano (+425), Delane (+500) and Tyson (+500). Eight players have odds of 12-1 or better to go No. 9.
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10. New York Giants (via CIN): Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (+275)
The Giants traded for this pick, and the do-it-all safety from Ohio State remains the favorite here. Tyson (+400) also has moved up to the second favorite after New York’s deal, followed by Penn State offensive lineman Olaiavega Ioane (+500).
