The Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes dance at the top of the MVP odds board took a twirl after the Buffalo Bills beat the odds and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Allen, who spent a few weeks atop the odds board before Mahomes vaulted over him in Week 6, took the lead back with that win.
Allen (+160) has an implied nearly 40 percent likelihood of repeating this year at those odds. Mahomes, who was +140 last week to Allen’s +350, is now in second at +350 (22 percent).
Of course, following these little flips and flops at the top of the odds is sort of like taking a microscope to the proverbial elephant to figure out what it is — and then trying to predict if the elephant is going to win NFL MVP. These two quarterbacks are obviously generational talents, and both could easily win MVP again. Hop on one of them if you want when their odds lengthen a bit, but we’re not learning much from these fluctuations.
It gets more interesting a few steps down the ladder, though, where Matthew Stafford (+500) is continuing his relentless climb up the odds for MVP as the Los Angeles Rams similarly advance up the Super Bowl odds board (tied for third with the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles at +850).
Let’s take a look at the odds before digging deeper.
NFL MVP odds
Stafford opened at +5000 odds, or 50-to-1, implying a less than 2 percent likelihood of winning. That put him 17th on the board. He’s now fourth with a near 17 percent likelihood, behind Allen, Mahomes and last week’s big riser, Drake Maye. Stafford was in fourth last week at +1100, but his performance in Week 9 was good enough to slash those odds roughly in half, though without moving ahead of Maye, who sits at +450.
How is he doing it? The Athletic’s Nate Atkins, senior writer covering the Rams, provided an answer:
“Stafford is enjoying the best start to a season of his 17-year career. He has a league-high 21 touchdowns to just two interceptions, and he’s the fourth quarterback in history to post that strong of a ratio through the first eight games.
“The Rams have moved back to more of the under-center, play-action looks they used with Jared Goff, now with multiple tight ends on the field more often than not. That’s allowed Stafford to be in control of play designs to spring receivers open while also having two wide receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who win most one-on-one matchups. So long as the Rams can stay healthy up front in order to keep him and his back protected, expect the MVP-like surge to continue.”
Stafford’s case could get stronger if they manage to win the next two weeks over division rivals: at San Francisco in Week 10 and vs. Seattle in Week 11.
Speaking of the Seahawks, their quarterback, Sam Darnold (+2500), is another big riser in the MVP odds. Darnold is suddenly in the top 10 on the odds board as the Seahawks press their status as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. In the Seahawks’ Week 9 win over the Commanders, Darnold went 21-of-24 for 330 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.
In tenth, right under Darnold, is perhaps the most athletic climber of them all: Lamar Jackson (+3000). With his return from injury, Jackson went 18-of-23 for 204 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s still a long shot, but expect him to keep rising if the Baltimore Ravens continue to win (which they need to do for a playoff spot). Before his return, his odds had stretched to as long as +10000 (100-to-1), so 30-to-1 is quite the improvement.
Watch out for Jackson.
