As the NFL heads into Week 16, the playoff picture remains unsettled across both conferences, with several divisions hinging on specific game combinations, cascading tiebreakers, and even potential strength-of-victory outcomes.
Below is a team-needs breakdown of every remaining path to the postseason. Next week, we’ll take a look at what teams need for potential top seeds. For this week, we’re focused on simply getting into the dance.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
Can clinch the NFC East title with one more win (or a Dallas loss). Essentially, any Eagles victory in the final three games guarantees a playoff berth.
Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
They must win the division to make the playoffs. To claim it, the Cowboys must win all three of their remaining games, while the Eagles must lose all three of theirs. That’s it.
Washington Commanders (4-10)
Eliminated.
New York Giants (2-12)
Eliminated.
NFC North
Chicago Bears (10-4)
The Bears control much of their destiny but face complex fallback scenarios.
Any two Bears wins guarantee a playoff spot. Week 18 win over Detroit alone would be sufficient, regardless of earlier results.
If Chicago beats only San Francisco, then they must receive two additional losses from either the 49ers or Packers (including the Bears’ own win). In practice, this would require San Francisco to lose out, or alternatively for Seattle to lose out.
If Chicago beats only Green Bay, then they would need one more Packers loss, or three Seahawks losses.
If the Bears lose out, and the Lions win out, Chicago is eliminated.
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
The Packers clinch a playoff berth once they reach a combined total of two Packers wins and Lions losses. But unlike the Bears, the Packers don’t play the Lions again.
Any two Packers wins would be sufficient on their own, regardless of Detroit’s results.
If Green Bay only beats Chicago (and Detroit wins out), then they’d need either the Bears to lose to San Francisco or the 49ers to lose out to make it in.
If Green Bay only beats Baltimore/Minnesota (and Detroit wins out), then they would need the 49ers to lose out.
If the Packers lose out and the Lions win at least two games, Green Bay is eliminated.
Detroit Lions (8-6)
The Lions likely need to win out (finish 11-6) to have a shot, primarily by taking care of Chicago in a Week 18 showdown.
In addition, Detroit needs the Bears to lose at least one of their other remaining games (Week 16 vs. GB or 17 @ SF) to leapfrog them in the division standings.
Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
Eliminated.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
With two head-to-head matchups against Carolina remaining (Weeks 16 and 18), the Buccaneers can win the division if they sweep.
If they split 1-1 with the Panthers, the Bucs would need to win in Week 17 (vs. Dolphins) — regardless of the Panthers’ result in Week 17 (vs. Seahawks).
If they split 1-1, and both teams lose in Week 17, the Buccaneers win the division unless Atlanta wins out (vs. Cardinals, Rams, Saints).
Carolina Panthers (7-7)
With two head-to-head matchups against Tampa remaining (Weeks 16 and 18), the Panthers can win the division if they sweep.
If they split 1-1 with the Bucs, the Panthers would need to win in Week 17 (vs. Seahawks) and have the Bucs lose to the Dolphins in Week 17.
If they split 1-1, and both teams lose in Week 17, the Panthers only win the division if Atlanta wins out (vs. Cardinals, Rams, Saints).
Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
Eliminated.
New Orleans Saints (4-10)
Eliminated.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
Clinched a postseason berth.
A win in Week 16 (a showdown against Seattle) would put Los Angeles in prime position for the top seed in the conference.
Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Can clinch a playoff spot with just one more win (or a Detroit loss).
If they lose out and the Lions win out, the Seahawks still make the playoffs if Green Bay loses twice or if Chicago loses out.
San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Can clinch a playoff spot with just one more win (or a Detroit loss).
If they lose out, they’d also need the Packers to lose out to make it.
Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
AFC East
New England Patriots (11-3)
In with any win or Colts loss.
Also in with any Texans loss except for Week 18 against the Colts (if that happens, the Patriots would need an additional Texans or Colts loss to lock a spot).
Buffalo Bills (10-4)
In with any two wins.
Things get complicated with the AFC South if they only win one game, but broadly speaking (and ignoring ties), one loss from Indianapolis, two losses from Houston or Jacksonville, or three losses from Los Angeles do it.
If Buffalo loses out, they’d need two losses from Indianapolis or three losses from Jacksonville or Houston to get in.
Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Eliminated.
New York Jets (3-11)
Eliminated.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Winning out clinches the division. Losing out eliminates them.
Beating the Ravens in Week 18 gives them the division, regardless of previous results.
Any combination of three Steelers wins + Ravens losses also gets them in.
If they win in Weeks 16 and 17 but lose to the Ravens in Week 18, they can still make the playoffs if the Texans lose out or if the Texans win the AFC South and nowhere else in the AFC South finishes with more than 10 wins.
Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
The Ravens need to beat the Steelers in Week 18 and have a total of 4 Ravens wins + Steelers losses to make the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Eliminated.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
Eliminated.
AFC South
The problem here is that there are still scenarios where strength of victory determines who wins the division. If the Colts and Jaguars tie at 11 wins, or all three teams tie at 10 wins, it doesn’t just matter who they beat, but who the teams they beat beat, and that’s not locked up yet.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
Any two wins and they are in.
Houston Texans (9-5)
Any two wins and they are in.
Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
The Colts need to win at least two games to have a chance.
Tennessee Titans (2-12)
Eliminated.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (12-2)
Clinched a playoff berth.
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
In with any two wins.
If LA loses out, they’d need two losses from Indy or three from Buffalo to get in.
Outside of the two scenarios, heading into Week 16 the Chargers’ possible branches are nearly endless with the AFC South complication if the Chargers win just one more game. But broadly speaking — and ignoring ties — one loss from the Colts or two losses from Houston, Jacksonville, or Buffalo should get the Chargers in.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
Eliminated.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
Eliminated.
