My Week 13 straight-up picks went 10-6 and included correctly picking Dallas to upset Kansas City. That moves my straight-up picks to a 63-23 mark over the past six weeks. Let’s go for a seventh straight week of 10-plus wins in Week 14.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-14 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 13 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 10-6 in Week 13 (135-58-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 5-5 (82-44-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 5-1 (53-14) - Overall to cover the spread: 5-10-1 (96-91-7)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 4-8-1 (80-74-6)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-2 (16-17-1)
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3)
The Cowboys have fully embraced the idea that they need to win high-scoring games. It’s why Dallas is 6-2-1 when scoring 24-plus points. The Lions are 3-4 when giving up 24 or more points. Detroit may make up for this by being more aggressive offensively. That’s why I’ll take the Lions to win, but the Cowboys to cover.
- Pick to win: Detroit (Confidence level: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Dallas (Confidence level: 2)
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets
The Dolphins are getting a lot of kudos for having won four of their last five games, but don’t forget that the Jets have won three of their last five. Miami has a solid advantage in offensive metrics and a stronger rush defense. New York counters with better pass coverage and a big special teams edge. This is another close game that calls for a split decision.
- Pick to win: Miami (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: New York (CL: 2)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Last week may have been the nadir of Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh tenure. The Steelers couldn’t throw the ball, stop the run or run the ball versus a tough Buffalo defense. Baltimore’s defense is every bit as good as the Bills. Derrick Henry can return to king mode versus this defense. I’ll put this one into the strong win and cover category for the Ravens.
- Pick to win: Baltimore (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Baltimore (CL: 5)
Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Atlanta Falcons
Seattle may be the best team in the league right now. That made this game’s metric review quite surprising. Atlanta fared well in most categories and wasn’t far behind in the ones it didn’t win. It’s also an early-afternoon East Coast kickoff, a factor that favors the Falcons. The Seahawks still have the overall advantage and thus get my pick to win, but Atlanta gets my cover pick.
- Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Atlanta (CL: 3)
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Don’t be surprised that the 8-4 Bills are only a moderate home favorite over the 4-8 Bengals. Cincinnati has the better passing game by far, even if we assume wide receiver Tee Higgins won’t play. The Bills have a great ground attack but they can’t stop the run. Buffalo has better pass coverage, but Cincinnati has better special teams and is healthier. I’ll take Buffalo for the outright win, but the Bengals will keep this close enough to earn the cover.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati (CL: 3)
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-4)
The betting public may not have enough faith in Cleveland. These teams are roughly even offensively and in special teams. The Browns have an overwhelming advantage in pass defense and are the home team. Shedeur Sanders is also getting more comfortable under center.
- Pick to win: Cleveland (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Cleveland (CL: 6)
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
The Vikings’ offense has been atrocious the past two weeks. A matchup against a dismal Washington defense and J.J. McCarthy’s return should get this platoon back to par. Washington maintains a talent edge in the passing game, but the Vikings’ powerful coverage metrics nullify that. I’ll go with the home-field tiebreaker.
- Pick to win: Minnesota (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Minnesota (CL: 1)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
Saints quarterback Tyler Shough is playing much better than expected, though that hasn’t resulted in New Orleans scoring many points. The Saints haven’t posted more than 17 points since Week 6. Tampa Bay’s offense keeps improving as its injured players return. I’ll take the Buccaneers for the win and cover.
- Pick to win: Tampa Bay (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Tampa Bay (CL: 5)
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Road trips to Jacksonville have been a house of horrors for the Colts over the years (they haven’t won there since 2014). This year is trending to be no exception. The Jaguars have huge stat advantages in run defense and special teams. Jacksonville should be a solid favorite here instead of a home underdog. That’s make this an easy pick for a Jaguars win and cover.
- Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Jacksonville (CL: 7)
Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
It’s more than a bit surprising that Denver isn’t favored by more than 7.5 points. Las Vegas is a dismal squad that has no stat advantages in this game. The Raiders used to have a jinx against the Broncos, but Denver has won three straight in this series. There seem to be few game paths that can alter that trend. I’ll pick Denver for a double-digit win.
- Pick to win: Denver (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover the spread: Denver (CL: 7)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Bears’ defense played exceptionally well last week against an Eagles offense that lacks creativity. Matt LaFleur’s offense doesn’t lack that trait. The Packers also have a much better defense and are at home. Those are enough to land my pick to win in the Green Bay column, but the 6.5-point spread means Chicago gets my cover pick.
- Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 3)
Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Arizona Cardinals
The Rams have a nearly across-the-board edge in the metric review. The issue is that Los Angeles had a stat edge headed into last weekend’s game against Carolina and lost. That may cause some to hesitate. I won’t be in that category because it’s highly unlikely the Rams will lose the turnover battle 0-3 like they did last week.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 6)
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
The betting public is stubborn when it comes to the Chiefs. It seems that no matter what Kansas City does, it still ends up as the pregame favorite. Houston has a very strong pass rush and is healthier. The Chiefs are the home team and have the better quarterback. The QB edge that Patrick Mahomes provides is enough to push my win pick to Kansas City, but I’ll take Houston for the cover.
- Pick to win: Kansas City (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Houston (CL: 2)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Bears’ innovative ground attack may have provided the rest of the NFL with the blueprint for beating the Eagles’ defense. The Chargers are quite willing to run the ball, and Jim Harbaugh knows a thing or two about creativity in that area. Jesse Minter is a superb defensive coach whose play calling could keep the struggling Philadelphia offense in check. Add it up and I’ll take the Chargers for the win and cover.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 3)
