Week 1 of the 2025 NFL regular season is in the books, which means we turn our attention back to the board for Week 2. The Green Bay Packers host the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football to get things started, and I just happen to have a best bet in that game.
Recapping last week, Xavier Worthy went down with an injury very early for the Chiefs, and the Texans offense was anemic. I guess I should have avoided fading the teams from Los Angeles. Anyway, we got some good numbers against the closing line, so good process, I guess. Let’s get to this week.
Last week’s record: 2-3, -1.25 units
Four bets to kick off this week, with another one or two likely to come before games kick off on Sunday. Just need to wait around to get more injury clarity through the rest of the week. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!
NFL Week 2 best bets
Green Bay Packers -3 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders
I’m buying all of the Packers stock early in the season. This defense made the Lions look lost last week, and that was with a limited Micah Parsons. Sure, Parsons will probably be limited again, but I assume he will increase his snap count each week, and with him on the field, this front seven is nasty when he’s in the fold. I contemplated also playing the under here, but I’ll buy stock in the Packers being a little underrated by the betting market.
Worst price to bet: Packers -3 (-115)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens under 45.5 (-115)
Betting an under involving Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry doesn’t sound like fun, but this seems a tad bit too high due to their performance last week in Buffalo. I think there is a world where Lamar Jackson uses his legs less in games that they don’t need him to — the Ravens are a double-digit favorite here — and that should help us keep the scoring down a bit. Also, the Browns profile as an under team per my model with a poor offense and a solid defense. Let’s keep the clock running in this one, please.
Worst price to bet: Under 45 (-110)
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals over 43.5 (-110)
The Panthers offense looked horrific last week and shouldn’t give you too much confidence that they’re a team you want to back when betting an over. Luckily for you, I’m a sicko who wants to believe that we are likely getting second-half-of-2024 Bryce Young this weekend. On the flip side of this, the Panthers defense is bad and should allow Arizona to set the pace here. If we can avoid a disastrous Panther offensive performance, I think this game should land in the mid-40s.
Worst price to bet: Over 43.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs under 47 (-110)
The last time these two teams met, they managed to score into the 60s, so naturally I’m betting the under here. My thought process behind it is that the Chiefs are likely going to be without Worthy and are already missing Rashee Rice due to suspension. If they’re going to have to dink and dunk their way down the field, a lot of time is going to come off the clock. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles had to dink and dunk their way down the field against a poor Cowboys defense last week. If we aren’t going to have many downfield throws, I like the odds of this being a lower-scoring game.
Worst price to bet: Under 47 (-115)
New bets added Friday
Seahawks over 39.5 (-115)
Worst price to bet: 40 (-110)
(Photo of Micah Parsons: John Fisher / Getty Images)
