In the NFL, you’re never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we’re going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 2’s NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I’ll lay out which bets I’m willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds, but as always, you’ll have to decide for yourself whether there’s enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire’s Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here’s what I’ve got for this upcoming slate of games.
NOTE: My model’s total predictions were higher than market in Week 1, annnnnd that didn’t go great. I’ve adjusted the league-wide scoring environment down a smidge but am still showing value on overs due to quarterback health, a good number of indoor games, and the updated kicking rules. Just proceed with caution in spots where I show value in overs as it’s possible I’m still too high.
NFL Week 2 Predictions
Commanders at Packers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -3.0
Total Prediction: 52.1
Betting Odds
Bills at Jets Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -7.4
Total Prediction: 52.1
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Even as I’m being cautious with betting overs this week, I agree with the model that 45.5 is too low. The New York Jets‘ physical run game should work well against the Buffalo Bills, allowing them to hold up their end of the scoring bargain.
Jaguars at Bengals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bengals -6.1
Total Prediction: 49.0
Betting Odds
Thoughts: This is a good buy-low spot on the Cincinnati Bengals after they struggled in the wind on the road against a divisional opponent with a good defense in Week 1. They should have much more success here, so I’m willing to lay the 3.5.
Giants at Cowboys Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -5.5
Total Prediction: 47.1
Betting Odds
Bears at Lions Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -8.0
Total Prediction: 51.7
Betting Odds
Thoughts: The Detroit Lions are similar to the Bengals where their Week 1 struggles are easy to understand. I think they’ll perform much better at home and indoors against a lesser foe, so I’m willing to lay the 4.5.
Rams at Titans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -5.4
Total Prediction: 44.1
Betting Odds
Patriots at Dolphins Prediction
Spread Prediction: Dolphins -2.4
Total Prediction: 42.2
Betting Odds
Thoughts: You could not pay me to bet the Miami Dolphins after last week’s fiasco. I’ve lowered them plenty, but I’m ignoring the model here until it catches up to the market.
49ers at Saints Prediction
Spread Prediction: 49ers -5.3
Total Prediction: 46.9
Betting Odds
Thoughts: I’m projecting Brock Purdy and Jauan Jennings as in with George Kittle out. I’m ignoring the value on the over until we get good news on Purdy, at which time I will have plenty of interest in betting on points in this game despite the San Francisco 49ers‘ cluster injuries.
Seahawks at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Steelers -3.3
Total Prediction: 43.8
Betting Odds
Browns at Ravens Prediction
Spread Prediction: Ravens -13.2
Total Prediction: 52.5
Betting Odds
Thoughts: This is another over I’m willing to back despite my hesitations. Joe Flacco makes the Cleveland Browns more pass-heavy (thus leading to a faster pace), and the Baltimore Ravens should be able to name their score on offense.
Broncos at Colts Prediction
Spread Prediction: Broncos -2.6
Total Prediction: 42.8
Betting Odds
Panthers at Cardinals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cardinals -6.7
Total Prediction: 51.1
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Neither offense lit it up in Week 1, but I still am not a fan of either defense, and this is an indoor game. I think the total is too low here.
Eagles at Chiefs Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -0.6
Total Prediction: 49.5
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Currently projecting Xavier Worthy as in, so I’ll hold off on betting anything until we have more clarity there.
Falcons at Vikings Prediction
Spread Prediction: Vikings -3.6
Total Prediction: 46.0
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Currently projecting Drake London as in.
Buccaneers at Texans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -0.7
Total Prediction: 46.8
Betting Odds
Chargers at Raiders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chargers -0.7
Total Prediction: 45.7
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Awaiting more concrete updates on Brock Bowers before getting too enthusiastic about the Las Vegas Raiders‘ spread or moneyline.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
