Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season provides 14 games, headlined by the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. Should sports fans back the Chiefs or Bills in any of their wagers, or are there other options which offer more value in Week 9?
If you’re looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 9 NFL games, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has put together. He’s going with two parlays for Week 9, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.
Week 9 NFL money line favorites parlay
Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a 3-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you’re not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you’re also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.
According to BetMGM data, NFL moneyline favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL moneyline favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.
NFL favorites dominated the opening week, winning 13 of 16 games for an 81.2% success rate. The second Week saw more competitive results, with favorites winning 9 of 16 games for a 56.2% success rate. In Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season, 12 out of 16 favorites won outright, giving betting favorites a 75.0% success rate. In Week 4, favorites struggled on a relative basis, going 10-5-1. Three weeks ago, NFL betting favorites had their worst Week this season, going 8-5. In Week 6, NFL betting chalk bounced back by winning 11 of 15 games. Two Weeks ago, favorites had another excellent performance, going 12-3 after both chalk won on MNF. Favorites excelled in Week 8, achieving a remarkable 11-2 record with an average point differential of over 10 points.
NFL betting favorites have won 86 out of 120 games in the first seven weeks of the 2025 season, achieving an overall success rate of 72.5%. This figure has exceeded last year’s mark of 71.8%. What does this mean for Week 9? Will there be any upsets, or will the chalk continue to cash?
Detroit Lions over Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota faces a nightmare scenario with quarterback J.J. McCarthy returning from injury but having only two career regular-season starts under his belt. The Vikings’ offensive line ranks 31st in sacks allowed per game (4.0) and just lost quarterback Carson Wentz to a season-ending shoulder injury.
Detroit’s pass rush will feast on Minnesota’s 22nd-ranked pass blocking unit, and the Lions rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses—more than any other franchise. With running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery both healthy and the Vikings’ defense ranking in the bottom 10 against the run, Detroit has multiple pathways to a dominant victory.
The Lions have defeated the Vikings in five straight meetings, scoring at least 30 points in all five games. Detroit’s offense performs at another level at home, and I expect another easy victory against a defense they know well. With a win projection of 79%, my model suggests taking the Lions as an easy parlay piece.
Los Angeles Chargers over Tennessee Titans
The Chargers are riding momentum from a 37-10 demolition of Minnesota on Thursday Night Football, improving to 5-3 while enjoying extra rest before traveling to face the NFL’s most dysfunctional franchise. Los Angeles ranks 17th in offensive EPA per play and features quarterback Justin Herbert at peak efficiency with the return of weapons like Ladd McConkey, who averaged 14.7 yards per catch last week. Getting a healthy Joe Alt back adds stability to the offensive line, enabling head coach Jim Harbaugh to implement his preferred game strategy.
Tennessee sits at a dismal 1-7 with its only victory coming against the Arizona Cardinals in a wild fourth quarter comeback, and the Titans been outscored by 120 total points this season—a catastrophic point differential. They are 0-3 at home and have lost three consecutive games by double digits, while their defense ranks 28th in defensive EPA per play (0.10). The Chargers’ defense has been stingy, allowing just 188 yards per game and creating advantageous field position that the offense has capitalized on. Tennessee lost four defensive starters in its Week 8 loss, creating even more mismatches for Herbert and company to exploit. The road team has a significant coaching advantage. Please suspend betting on the Titans until further notice.
Indianapolis Colts over Pittsburgh Steelers
I was very disappointed with the Steelers’ performance against the Packers on Sunday Night Football. Something is definitely wrong with this Steelers team. Conversely, things could not be going any better in Indianapolis. The Colts own the NFL’s best record at 7-1 and lead the league in total offensive yards (385.1 per game), establishing themselves as the AFC’s top seed in the current playoff picture. Running back Jonathan Taylor has been unstoppable, recording multiple touchdowns in four of the Colts’ last five games while the offense ranks third in quick passing and first in short passing efficiency.
Pittsburgh enters on a two-game losing streak, with its defense suddenly vulnerable after allowing 68 points on 924 total yards in consecutive defeats. The Steelers rank 25th in defensive EPA per play (0.07), and their secondary ranks 30th and 24th, respectively, in defending quick and short passes—exactly where Indianapolis excels. Although Pittsburgh’s run game ranks fourth in rushing DVOA and could challenge Indy’s 24th-ranked total defense (which allows 345.1 yards per game), the Colts have excelled at limiting opponent success. The Steelers have many injuries on both sides of the ball. This is an excellent price on the Colts to improve to 8-1.
Week 9 NFL money line underdogs parlay
A popular option is available if you’re willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.
New York Giants over San Francisco 49ers
The New York Football Giants, at home getting plus-money against a struggling 49ers squad, present enormous value based on defensive matchups and efficiency metrics. New York’s defense has been stout in converting yards into points, allowing just 14.9 yards per point—significantly better than San Francisco’s offense, which requires 17.7 yards per point.
I mentioned a few weeks ago that the Giants will be a team to “play on” once they make the switch off of Russell Wilson at quarterback. I have been mostly right. New York’s new look offense features rookie dual-threat quarterback Jaxson Dart, who provides enough clock control to keep games close and limit possessions for San Francisco. The 49ers are just 1-1 against the spread as favorites of 2.5 points or greater this season, and computer simulations give them only a 55% win probability—hardly dominant enough to justify -155 moneyline odds.
Let’s fade the 49ers, who are playing back-to-back road games and their third in four weeks with a squad that’s been missing many starters since the beginning of the season.
Las Vegas Raiders over Jacksonville Jaguars
Both teams are coming off a Week 8 bye, but the Raiders should benefit more significantly from the extra rest. Las Vegas expects tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers to return from knee injuries. Their returns transform a struggling passing attack that ranks among the NFL’s worst in passing yards (1,425 total) and touchdowns (seven).
Even more importantly, Maxx Crosby, a star pass rusher, should be healthy. His Week 7 knee injury exit was described as precautionary, with NFL insider Ian Rapoport confirming it’s “not a major knee injury” and Crosby is “OK”. The Raiders essentially protected their best defensive player in a blowout loss, giving him two weeks to recover. He should feast on a Jaguars defense ranked 23rd in sacks allowed per game (2.9).
The Raiders’ defense excels precisely where the Jaguars’ offense struggles most. Las Vegas has allowed at least five yards on just 36% of first-down plays this season—the best in the NFL (league average: 43%). Pete Carroll’s track record suggests the Raiders will be more prepared. He’s only started 2-5 or worse twice before (finishing 7-9 and 7-10 in those seasons). The veteran coach can rally teams during bye weeks for second-half surges.
Jacksonville’s road struggles are well-documented. The Jaguars are 2-12 in their last 14 road games and 1-1 on the road this season. Their two consecutive losses were against formidable NFC West opponents, and now they face a desperate Raiders team with everything to prove. Additionally, the Jaguars will be playing the Houston Texans in a look-ahead spot next week.
Arizona Cardinals over Dallas Cowboys
Arizona represents the perfect buy-low candidate after losing five consecutive games—all by four points or fewer—indicating the Cardinals are significantly better than their 2-5 record suggests. The Cardinals’ expected record is 3.5-4.5 wins per advanced metrics, meaning positive regression should arrive in close games.
Dallas presents a catastrophic defensive situation, ranking 31st in defensive DVOA and allowing 31.3 points per game. The Cowboys’ secondary is decimated by injuries, and six of their last seven games have featured 57+ total points, creating backdoor cover opportunities even when trailing. While Dallas averages 41.3 points per game at home, they rank just 28th in yards per play allowed and 22nd in offensive DVOA against strength of schedule.
Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray returns from the bye week with extra preparation time, though he historically struggles in this spot (only one career win off the bye). However, the Cardinals rank 20th in defensive EPA per play, which should provide enough resistance to keep this game competitive in the high-scoring environment Vegas projects (54.5 total). At +130 for a team that’s been competitive in every game, the value is clearly with the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have a 1-6 SU record in post-bye week games, including 0-2 SU under head coach Jonathan Gannon. Facing the Cowboys’ struggling defense and special teams coverage unit could be just what the road team needs to turn things around.
