We’re (basically) halfway through the NFL season, and if you’re still chugging along in your NFL Survivor contest … well, you beat me, I lost in Week 4. But you’re also reading this, so maybe you still want my advice. Thanks!
A week ago, the pick in this space was the Colts taking down the Titans, which they did with ease. Yes, the Colts appear to be excellent, but that selection was more about the team they were facing than it was about the Colts themselves. That might be a trend! Read on to find out.
So now, check out the process for my Week 8 pick below. And if you’re into numbers, don’t miss Aaron Schatz’s legendary content and our StatsHub advanced stats research tool for next-level insights.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 9
Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. Also, just for the record — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so I won’t pick a team I’ve already used. That said, I won’t eliminate such a team until I get to my final decision, because we don’t know if you used the team I used.
Bye Week!
The easiest ones. I can’t get these wrong! And there are a lot this week!
Cleveland Browns
New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Four out. I like easy! We’ve got 28 more.
Opponent Is Too Good
Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings.
Atlanta Falcons (@ New England)
Buffalo Bills (vs. Kansas City)
Carolina Panthers (@ Green Bay)
Houston Texans (vs. Denver)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Buffalo)
Minnesota Vikings (@ Detroit)
New Orleans Saints (@ LA Rams)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Indianapolis)
Washington Commanders (vs. Seattle)
Nine more off the board, 19 to go.
They’re Too Bad
You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12.
Arizona Cardinals (@ Dallas)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Chicago)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Jacksonville)
Miami Dolphins (vs. Baltimore)
New York Giants (vs. San Francisco)
Tennessee Titans (vs. LA Chargers)
Six more out leaves us with 13.
Want more tools and analysis to keep you alive in your survivor pool? Check out PoolGenius for all the best offerings.
Island Games
This one isn’t a hard-and-fast category — if I don’t have another pick I like and feel like a prime-time (or Europe) game is just the overwhelming choice, I might double back. Generally speaking, the spotlight games are just weird. That’s not analysis, but also you know I’m right. I would much rather avoid games on Thursday, Sunday or Monday night, and I’d especially like to avoid overseas games.
Baltimore Ravens (@ Miami)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona)
Seattle Seahawks (@ Washington)
That leaves us with 10 teams, our 10 contenders for this week. That’s more than I like to have left after the elimination process, but you take what the system gives you.
The Contenders
Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.
Chicago Bears (@ Cincinnati)
Model Projection: Bears 26.81-23.60, Bears 57.9% win rate
Pros: Cincinnati’s defense is so friendly that the Bears can go wild, and Joe Flacco’s injury could hamstring the offense.
Cons: Caleb Williams had one touchdown pass in all of October.
Denver Broncos (@ Houston)
Model Projection: Broncos 21.53-19.50, Broncos 56.2% win rate
Pros: The Denver offense had its best showing of the season in Week 8.
Cons: It came against the Cowboys, always an important caveat. Also, Pat Surtain II’s absence is potentially crushing.
Detroit Lions (vs. Minnesota)
Model Projection: Lions 30.93-17.44, Lions 80.7% win rate
Pros: J.J. McCarthy is back, but he’s cold and hasn’t looked good yet. Meanwhile, Detroit is rolling.
Cons: Save ‘em for later?
Green Bay Packers (vs. Carolina)
Model Projection: Packers 27.03-18.30, Packers 72.6% win rate
Pros: Green Bay is facing either Bryce Young just back from injury or Andy Dalton after how he looked last week. Either way, Micah Parsons is drooling.
Cons: The Panthers have been surprising frisky intermittently this season.
Indianapolis Colts (@ Pittsburgh)
Model Projection: Colts 27.55-22.71, Colts 61.8% win rate
Pros: The Colts are the top team in DVOA this season, while the Pittsburgh defense seems to be disintegrating before our eyes.
Cons: On the road at Pittsburgh could be a time for Daniel Jones’s eyes to get wide.
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Las Vegas)
Model Projection: Jaguars 22.45-19.86, Jaguars 57.6% win rate
Pros: The way the Raiders have looked this season, anyone is capable of beating them.
Cons: The way the Jaguars have looked in their last few games, they might not be capable of beating anyone.
Los Angeles Chargers (@ Tennessee)
Model Projection: Chargers 27.26-15.41, Chargers 80.6% win rate
Pros: Tennessee’s offense isn’t functional. The Chargers’ offense … is.
Cons: On the road is a small red flag, I guess?
Los Angeles Rams (vs. New Orleans)
Model Projection: Rams 28.48-15.18, Rams 82.8% win rate
Pros: The Rams get Puka Nacua back and now face Tyler Shough in his first NFL start.
Cons: I’ve used them, and you might want to save them. That’s about it.
New England Patriots (vs. Atlanta)
Model Projection: Patriots 24.26-21.56, Patriots 57.3% win rate
Pros: The Patriots are rolling, while the Falcons just got crushed by the Dolphins.
Cons: The Falcons are the yo-yo-est team in the league this year. Maybe they come out like the team that beat the Bills.
San Francisco 49ers (@ NY Giants)
Model Projection: 49ers 25.10-24.98, 49ers 50.3% win rate
Pros: The Giants are dropping like flies, while the 49ers are getting (gradually) healthier.
Cons: Taking a team that gets hurt as much as San Francisco does to the Meadowlands seems like asking for trouble. And that New York defensive front is still scary.
The Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (@ Tennessee)
Yep, it’s them again. I haven’t picked “team against Tennessee” every week, but I’ve done it a lot of the weeks. It’s been a very secure pick most weeks, and this one is no different. Until the Titans start to look even a little functional, it might be the default any week it’s possible.
Honorable Mention
Detroit Lions (@ Minnesota)
Green Bay Packers (vs. Carolina) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Los Angeles Rams (vs. New Orleans) — if you didn’t use them when I did
2025 record: 6-2
Week 1: Broncos (W)
Week 2: Rams (W)
Week 3: Chiefs (W)
Week 4: Packers (L)
Week 5: Cardinals (L)
Week 6: Steelers (W)
Week 7: Bears (W)
Week 8: Colts (W)
Week 9: Chargers
