Josh Inglis’ NHL player props have identified three plus-money plays for Thursday night, highlighted by a pair of point props.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Pictured: Alex Wennberg.
It was a slight winning day yesterday here thanks to a stack of Dallas forwards, but today I’m leaving the stacks alone as there have been some adjustments in the market that I might have to wait out.
Today, I’m eyeing a pair of skaters for a point after they’ve been promoted to the top line. I’m also looking for some shots on goal from a Chicago offense that is giving a lot of minutes to skaters not named Connor Bedard.
These are my three NHL player props for Thursday, November 21.
NHL prop picks and best bets for November 21
Picks made on 11-21 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Ryan Donato Over 2.5 shots on goal
Ryan Donato might not be playing on the Connor Bedard line currently, but he is playing big minutes regardless and led all Chicago Blackhawks skaters in time on ice in Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to the Ducks. The center finished that game with three shots one net, which was the sixth time in seven games he’s reached the 3+ SOG mark.
His ceiling is also quite high as he has recorded 4+ SOG in five of those seven games. His 4+ SOG tonight is paying +290 for those who want to get aggressive.
Chicago will likely be playing from behind tonight as well as they host the Florida Panthers. It might not seem like a great matchup on paper but Chicago gets the last change, so Donato could find himself in more offensive-zone starts. He had 3x more O-zone starts than Bedard on Tuesday.
Florida is an elite team but the Panthers are average in terms of shots allowed per game and surrender the sixth-most SOG per game on the road in hockey at 31.5 per match.
Donato has seen his odds in this market fall from +140, but with 20 minutes of ice time possible and the offensive skater on a boring 5-on-5 line, shooting opportunities will continue tonight. He leads the team in SOG/60 and shot attempts/60 but is not priced at those rates.
Prop bet #2: Alex Wennberg Over 0.5 points
The San Jose Sharks took a big blow last night when No. 1 center and points leader Mikael Granlund exited late after taking a hit to the head. It didn’t look great and the back-to-back is making him more doubtful than probable today vs. the St. Louis Blues.
Because of the back-to-back, the Sharks won’t hold a morning skate, so bettors won’t know for sure unless the team addresses it this afternoon or until the lineups are out right before puck drop.
I have a feeling he is going to sit, and that means Alex Wennberg would most likely move up to the top center spot. He already centers the first power-play unit with William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund, so the move there makes sense. That would also keep the Celebrini/Smith/Goodrow line together at 5-on-5 and PP2.
Getting a first-line and PP1 center at +140 for a point is flat-out stealing. If that is his role tonight, this price should be +100 at the highest. It’s not even a tough matchup vs. the Blues, who are an average team in terms of expected goals allowed metrics and rank 30th in GAA at 3.67.
Books are always slow to adjust to NHL injury news and line shuffling, but +140 is about as good as it gets.
Prop bet #3: Vladimir Tarasenko Over 0.5 points
Sticking with skaters getting new and better opportunities, Vladimir Tarasenko has been promoted to the Detroit Red Wings top line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond.
Both of those skaters are -190 or shorter for a point. Tarasenko is the longest of any skater being priced in this game at +135. Just like the Wennberg play, this is a spot where the books are slow to price in the offensive opportunity and increased ice time Tarasenko is getting.
This isn’t as strong a play as the Wennberg one, as Tarasenko is still on the second power-play unit, but this shouldn’t be longer than +115 and some books are as short as +107 for a Vlad point.
The Detroit offense isn’t a world-beating unit and the New York Islanders have been running a tight defensive ship this year, but opportunity trumps everything in hockey and this is a great spot for Vlad to find the scoresheet for a fifth straight game and play more minutes.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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