It was Wednesday of last week that forecasters say this past weekend’s storm came into fuller picture. Today is Wednesday, and we know another storm is coming to the East Coast.
Everything, of course, depends on the storm track.
The last winter storm hit late Saturday into Sunday, intensifying over the course of the day Sunday and leaving an abject mess of streets, rails and sidewalks for Monday’s commute. As for this next potential storm brewing, there’s much we don’t know. Certain things, however, are becoming clearer as we get closer to the weekend.
What we know
We’re locked in an unseasonably cold stretch this week, with repeated waves of arctic air bringing subzero wind chills at night and likely prompting more cold weather advisories through Friday.
Looking ahead to the weekend, a coastal storm will form off the Southeast coast, but right now it looks like a near‑miss for most of our area. The eastern third has the better shot at picking up some accumulating snow.
The storm will reinforce the cold air in place along the East Coast. Much of Florida will drop below freezing this weekend as a result. For the tri-state area, it means our string of below-freezing days will carry into next week.
With the low increasingly likely to deepen offshore, we will likely experience high surf on South- and East- facing shorelines Sunday into Monday. The full Snow Moon happens Sunday, Feb. 1, too. The combination may cause minor coastal flooding and beach erosion on Sunday.
What we don’t know
What we don’t know is the most likely track of this weekend’s storm. Aside from the storm’s strength, the track is the most important factor in determining its overall impacts on the tri-state area.
Currently, the American and European forecast models keep the storm far enough offshore to minimize any snow potential. But these are low-confidence forecasts this far from the event, so nothing is off the table.
If the ultimate track ends up hugging the coast, expect a mix of rain and snow for the tri-state, more than likely rain at the coast and snow inland. If the track hits a sweet spot far enough offshore, it could mean all snow – even at the coast. A far-offshore track would lock in cold air but keep storm precipitation out to sea.
While it’s way too early to make any definitive predictions on what exactly will happen, we remain laser-focused on this weekend’s forecast. Stay tuned to Storm Team 4 this week for updates.
