Things change quickly in October.
The Philadelphia Phillies have played just one game this MLB postseason, and they’re already in a must-win spot after the Los Angeles Dodgers took Game 1 of the NLDS Saturday night in the City of Brotherly Love.
Los Angeles is now -330 to win the series at FanDuel Sportsbook, which correlates to a 76.7 percent chance when you convert the odds to implied win probability.
The odds for Game 2 are much more palatable, with the Dodgers sitting as a -130 favorite with Blake Snell taking on Philadelphia’s Jesus Luzardo. The Over/Under is priced at 7.5 runs.
Snell was signed to be an anchor of a deep rotation in Hollywood, but he was shelved in April with a shoulder injury. It took four months for the southpaw to rejoin the Dodgers, but the patience seemed to pay off.
The 32-year-old posted a 2.41 ERA, 2.31 FIP, and struck out 68 batters in 52 ⅓ innings of work. Snell’s underlying metrics back up his sparkling numbers, with his only real issue being a propensity to hand out too many walks. But even that isn’t a major issue, as Snell’s ability to induce swings and misses helps him escape peril.
Snell is the A-side in this pitching matchup, but don’t sleep on Luzardo, who sparkled down the stretch with a 3.02 ERA and 2.15 FIP in his last seven outings.
Betting on Baseball?
Like Snell, the under-the-hood numbers back up Luzardo’s strong season, and he also has swing-and-miss stuff to bail him out of any jams.
Both of these lineups boast strong numbers against left-handers this season, but we’ll be seeing two of the best on Monday evening, which leads us to a play on the Under 7.5.
The Play Under 7.5 (-118, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
