The James Madison Dukes are rooting for Duke. Tulane is riding a wave straight into the bigtime. Alabama needs to take care of business. Notre Dame and Miami can only sit back, wait and hope.
Saturday’s slate of conference title games will set the stage for the last debate among members of the College Football Playoff selection committee, who will release the bracket for the 12-team tournament Sunday.
Some issues are clear-cut: For instance, no matter who wins the 1 vs. 2 showdown between Ohio State and Indiana, both teams will be in the playoff.
Many others aren’t.
A quick look at the stakes Saturday.
James Madison, Tulane, Duke and the ACC
Tulane (American), ranked 20th in the latest CFP standings, and No. 25 James Madison (Sun Belt) each became conference champions with wins Friday night. The CFP rules call for the five best-ranked conference titlists to earn spots in the 12-team bracket.
This was always presumed to mean the Power Four conferences and one other. But Duke of the ACC — unranked and with a 7-5 record — is in that league title game Saturday night. If the Blue Devils beat CFP No. 17 Virginia, there’s at least a chance that James Madison could be ranked ahead of them and take that spot that was presumed to be for the ACC winner.
“They’re tough. And I think they believe,” JMU coach Chesney said after his team beat Troy on Friday to place the spotlight on that ACC game. “They know who they are and they know what they’re capable of.”
Tide rolls into SEC title game, but what’s next?
The committee moved Alabama up one spot to No. 9 in its latest rankings after the Tide beat Auburn to qualify for the SEC title game. They play Georgia on Saturday.
A win and Alabama not only has its 31st league title, but is into the CFP. A loss, which would drop the Tide to 10-3, stirs up questions. Would the committee penalize Alabama for playing in an extra game, the likes of which (presumably) playoff-bound SEC teams like Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Ole Miss do not have to play?
“I just think when you’re really trying to have a playoff, you need your best teams in there,” Tide coach Kalen DeBoer said earlier in the week. “There’s no doubt in my mind that we are one of the best teams. I don’t say that arrogantly. I just really believe that’s what it is.”
Notre Dame and Miami sit and wait
Notre Dame (independent) and Miami (ACC) are slotted 10th and 12th in the playoff rankings, respectively. The schools do not control their own destiny, since they are not playing Saturday.
They are on the bubble, completely beholden to Saturday’s results and what the selection committee makes of them.
The Fighting Irish, who moved down one spot despite a 49-20 win over Stanford last week, will be looking hardest at the Big 12 title game between CFP No. 4 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU. If BYU springs an upset, it would likely vault ahead of the Irish and, with two conference titlists (see above) coming from outside the top 12, that could leave last year’s national runner-up on the outside.
If BYU loses, things would seem to look better for Notre Dame, except … The Irish fell to Miami on opening week. Both teams have 10-2 records. All season, the chair of the selection committee, Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek, has been asked what sort of weight that result holds in a head-to-head comparison between the teams.
He’s been pretty obtuse about the whole thing, but the teams haven’t been right next to each other in the standings yet. One thing Yurachek said last week that raised eyebrows is that teams that don’t play Saturday can still be re-evaluated by the committee.
“A little bit of confusion. You’re confused in terms of what we could have done differently and why we fell when we won 49-20,” Irish coach Marcus Freeman said. “We were up 42-6 going into the fourth quarter. I don’t spend time talking about other teams, but it’s what could we have done differently? I don’t know.”
Maybe winning that game against Miami?
The rest of the field
A few more things to watch Saturday.
Getting a bye: Will the Ohio State-Indiana loser drop from a top-four position and, thus, not get the valuable first-round bye? Likewise, an Alabama win over Georgia would likely cost the Bulldogs a spot in the top four, but would it be enough to vault the Tide there, ahead of No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 8 Oklahoma?
Home field and other things: The Sooners, who at No. 8 would have a home game in the first round of the playoffs, would likely lose home-field advantage in a first-round game if Alabama or BYU win. … And what to say about CFP No. 13 Texas? The Longhorns (9-3) need a miracle to get in. They came into the season ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and had the nation’s most hyped quarterback in Arch Manning. They have wins over top-15 teams Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. They also lost at Florida — the Gators were bad this year — and got stomped by Georgia. They are staring at the likelihood of watching their archrival, Oklahoma, and two other teams from Texas play in the playoff while they sit it out.
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