The Big Ten stretches from national title contenders at the top to full rebuild jobs at the bottom, and BetMGM‘s 2026 win totals capture that spread. Indiana and Oregon sit at 10.5, while Purdue is bringing up the rear at 3.5.
New coaches, transfer portal rosters and reshuffled schedules make several of these numbers worth a hard look.
We are going program by program with a firm call on each, starting at the bottom of the board and working our way up to the favorites.
Purdue over/under 3.5 wins
Over. Barry Odom already doubled the win total in his first season, and the second-year roster added a top-25 transfer portal class with upgrades on both lines.
Purdue opens with Indiana State and Wake Forest at home before Big Ten play, and five of the first seven games sit in Ross-Ade Stadium. Four wins are very reachable with that soft start.
Michigan State over/under 4.5 wins
Over. Pat Fitzgerald inherited a schedule that dropped Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Indiana and Iowa from a year ago.
Alessio Milivojevic returns after throwing for 986 yards and seven touchdowns over the final four games. Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Nebraska and Northwestern give the Spartans a path to five. The defense should take a step forward under a coach who built his name on that side of the ball.
Rutgers over/under 4.5 wins
Under. Greg Schiano is breaking in a new quarterback between AJ Surace and Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan, and the winnable conference games mostly fall on the road.
Rutgers hosts UMass and Howard and gets Boston College away in non-conference, so bowl math depends on stealing Big Ten games the roster is not built to win. The schedule that made 2025 tolerable got harder, and 4-8 feels closer than 6-6.
Maryland over/under 4.5 wins
Over. Mike Locksley returns the most production he has had since 2022, and sophomore Malik Washington is back after setting Maryland freshman records with 2,963 yards and 17 touchdowns. New offensive coordinator Clint Trickett arrives from Jacksonville State, where his 2025 unit ranked top-five nationally in rushing.
Maryland should open 3-0 against Hampton and at UConn, with a puncher’s chance against Virginia Tech at home, making five-plus wins well within reach.
Northwestern over/under 5.5 wins
Under. David Braun added Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator and Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles to run it, but the schedule is brutal.
A three-game run at Oregon, Iowa at home, then at Ohio State is the hardest stretch of any FBS team in 2026 per CBS Sports, and the Wildcats also travel to defending national champion Indiana and to Minnesota.
There are winnable home games, but six wins is a hard number to hit against that slate.
Minnesota over/under 6.5 wins
Over. Minnesota is the only Big Ten team returning its head coach, both coordinators and its starting quarterback, Drake Lindsey, who threw for 2,382 yards as a redshirt freshman. PJ Fleck brings back one of the most veteran rosters in the country, with running back Darius Taylor and Big Ten sacks leader Anthony Smith anchoring both sides.
Seven home games and back-to-back 8-5 seasons make seven wins the safe bet.
Nebraska over/under 6.5 wins
Over. Matt Rhule went 7-5 in 2025 and starts the season with Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, at Michigan State then Maryland, a soft opening salvo.
Dylan Raiola left for Oregon, but the Huskers replaced him with UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea, the reigning Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year, plus returning starter TJ Lateef. Rhule has cleared bowl eligibility two years running, and this schedule gets him there again.
UCLA over/under 6.5 wins
Over. Bob Chesney arrives from James Madison with most of his staff and a College Football Playoff pedigree, and Nico Iamaleava chose to stay in Westwood rather than enter the portal.
Chesney brought running back Wayne Knight, who ran for nearly 1,400 yards, and a rebuilt receiver corps to fix an offense that ranked among the worst nationally at explosive plays.
The schedule skips Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Washington, giving Chesney a real path to seven.
Wisconsin over/under 6.5 wins
Under. Luke Fickell has gone 9-15 across two straight bowl-less seasons, and the 2025 offense scored 12.8 points per game to rank ahead of only UMass nationally.
Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph brings a genuine dual-threat element after 2,624 passing yards and 1,007 rushing yards, but he opens against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, and the offense has to prove it can score first.
The schedule lightened, yet asking a team that could not reach the end zone to jump to seven wins is too much of a leap.
Illinois over/under 7.5 wins
Over. Bret Bielema won nine games in 2025 and enters year six coming off back-to-back winning seasons. East Carolina transfer Katin Houser arrives after a 3,300-yard passing season, and the schedule dodges Michigan, Penn State, USC and Washington.
Four of the first five games are in Champaign, and both CFN and CBS Sports project the Illini at 8-4, which just clears the 7.5-win total.
Iowa over/under 7.5 wins
Under. Iowa went 9-4 in 2025, but the winningest quarterback in NCAA history, Mark Gronowski, is gone, and Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown are competing to replace him.
The passing game already ranked 127th nationally under Gronowski, and now seven of the top eight defensive linemen are gone too.
The schedule softened with only Ohio State returning from last year’s playoff group, but a first-time starter and a rebuilt front make eight wins a hard ask.
Washington over/under 7.5 wins
Over. Jedd Fisch went 9-4 in 2025 and returns Demond Williams, who threw for 3,065 yards and ran for 611 after re-signing rather than transferring.
The Huskies rank in the top 15 nationally in returning production, average 34.1 points per game, and bring back four offensive line starters.
Road trips to USC and Oregon are the ceiling-limiters, but eight wins is very reachable for a team this experienced with a proven quarterback.
USC over/under 8.5 wins
Under. Lincoln Riley returns Jayden Maiava, who led the nation with a 91.2 QBR and threw for over 3,700 yards, plus four offensive line starters and a strong running back tandem in Waymond Jordan and King Miller.
The problem is the schedule. Oregon, Washington and Ohio State all visit the Coliseum, but road trips to Penn State, Wisconsin and Indiana pile up with no bye relief, and both Athlon and Yahoo project the Trojans at 8-4.
Nine wins require beating at least one of Oregon or Ohio State, and Riley has not cleared that bar in four seasons.
Michigan over/under 8.5 wins
Under. Kyle Whittingham takes over after Michigan fired Sherrone Moore for cause in December, and sophomore Bryce Underwood returns after a modest freshman year of 2,428 yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Underwood has obvious talent, and leading rusher Jordan Marshall is back, but Phil Steele rates this the second-toughest schedule in the country. A new coaching staff, a new scheme and that slate make nine wins a reach in year one.
Penn State over/under 8.5 wins
Over. Matt Campbell inherits a program that fired James Franklin after an 0-3 Big Ten start, but he brought a chunk of his Iowa State core with him, including quarterback Rocco Becht, and Penn State funneled around $30 million into the roster.
Marshall, Temple and a soft non-conference open the door to a fast start, and CBS Sports tabbed the Nittany Lions as one of the surest rebound teams in the country.
USC at home and at Michigan are the swing games, but nine wins is reachable with this schedule and this investment.
Ohio State over/under 9.5 wins
Over. Ryan Day returns Heisman finalist Julian Sayin, who completed 77% of his passes to rank first in the country, plus unanimous All-American receiver Jeremiah Smith and four offensive line starters.
The defense loses Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese to the NFL, and the linebacker room is overhauled, but the roster is reloaded with 51 newcomers and a top recruiting class.
Only Indiana on the road and Penn State stand out as real losses on this schedule, so 10 wins is the expectation for a team with this much talent.
Oregon over/under 10.5 wins
Over. Dan Lanning has gone 48-8 in four seasons and returns Heisman favorite Dante Moore, who threw for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns before choosing to come back rather than enter the draft.
One of the nation’s best defenses gives Oregon a shot to win every game, and Phil Steele calls this Lanning’s best team in five years.
The Ducks host their toughest games and skip nobody major, but 11 wins is well within range for a roster this deep.
Indiana over/under 10.5 wins
Over. Curt Cignetti went a perfect 16-0 and won the national championship, and he replaced Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza with TCU transfer Josh Hoover, the most productive returning quarterback in the country at 9,629 career passing yards.
Cignetti is 27-2 at Indiana, and his offensive coordinator, Mike Shanahan, is back. The Hoosiers play eight home games and may not face a ranked team until mid-October.
Losing Mendoza and much of the roster is real, but this staff plugged in two transfer quarterbacks over two years and went 23-1 in the regular season both times, so 11 wins with a home date against Ohio State is very reachable.
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