California voters overwhelmingly approved a redistricting referendum on Tuesday, a critical win for Democrats as they attempt to counter efforts by Donald Trump and allies to redraw congressional districts in their favor ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Now, the focus will shift to other states, where Trump is pressuring Republican-led legislatures to redraw their districts. Democrats are racing to do the same in an all-out sprint to rejigger district lines ahead of next year’s midterms.
California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, and fellow Democrats placed the measure on the ballot this summer after Texas Republicans passed a map that would add anywhere from three to five Republican seats in Congress. The new California map neuters that effort by adding the same number of Democratic seats.
Republicans currently hold a razor-thin 219-214 majority in the US House. There is one Republican vacancy and one Democratic one.
Republicans in North Carolina and Missouri have already passed new maps that would add one Republican congressional district apiece in each state. In Missouri, however, a citizen-led initiative could block the new map from going into effect in 2026.
Democrats are poised to wipe out those gains by passing a new congressional map in Virginia, where they expanded their majority in the state legislature on Tuesday. That effort could add two to three more Democratic seats. After a court struck down Utah’s congressional map for violating state constitutional provisions prohibiting partisan gerrymandering. Lawmakers put a new plan in place, which is still awaiting court approval, that added two competitive districts Democrats could win.
In Ohio, lawmakers were required to redraw the state’s map this year because they could not pass a bipartisan plan after the 2020 census. In a somewhat surprising move, Republicans and Democrats on the redistricting commission reached a bipartisan compromise that put one Democrat in a competitive seat, and made one Democratic district much more Republican-friendly. There is an outside shot both Democrats could hang on to their seats next year, according to the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan and well-respected election analysis website.
Trump is also strongly pressuring Republicans in Indiana to redraw their map to target two Democratic seats in the state. The legislature is set to meet in December to consider redistricting, though it’s unclear if Republicans have the votes to do so. Chris LaCivita, a co-manager of Trump’s 2024 campaign, recently set up an outside group designed to pressure lawmakers on redistricting. “Now the real fun begins,” he posted on X.
In Kansas, a Republican effort to get rid of a Democratic district has also stalled as Republicans have failed to muster the votes for a special session on redistricting.
Republicans may still be able to pick up a significant number of seats in Florida. The GOP-controlled legislature has already convened a committee to work on the issue, and a state supreme court ruling earlier this year could give lawmakers more leeway to dismantle existing districts. A provision in the state constitution prohibits drawing districts for explicitly partisan reasons.
Beyond those states, the redistricting path forward remains unclear in many places. Democrats are not uniformly on board with scorched-earth tactics to redraw maps and gain every possible advantage in the redistricting wars. In Maryland, the Democratic president of the state senate, Bill Ferguson, said he opposed a redistricting effort to get rid of Maryland’s lone Republican seat, saying it was too risky and could result in a court-ordered map that might be friendlier to Republicans than the one currently in place. Ferguson tweeted that Democratic wins in Virginia on Tuesday were evidence that Democrats could win without redistricting.
This drew a testy rebuke from L Louise Lucas, the president of the Virginia senate. “Get our victory in Virginia out of your mouth while you echo MAGA talking points. Grow a pair and stand up to this President. This is just embarassing [sic],” she posted on X on Wednesday.
The Maryland governor, Wes Moore, has also announced an advisory commission to gather input on maps. Any potential map would still have to go through the Maryland legislature. Democrats in Illinois are also tepid on redrawing their map to add more Democratic seats.
Beyond those states, there is still much uncertainty about the redistricting landscape before next year’s midterms.
Democrats are suing over maps in New York and Wisconsin in hopes of having courts force those states to redraw districts to add more Democratic districts. It’s unclear if those lawsuits will succeed at all or if they will force any action ahead of the midterm elections.
The US supreme court is considering whether to scrap a critical provision of the Voting Rights Act that protects the ability of minority voters to elect the candidate of their choice when certain conditions are met. It’s unclear if the court will rule in time for the midterms, but getting rid of that protection could enable Republicans to gain about a dozen seats, according to a New York Times analysis.
