The Big 12 is considered a Power 4 conference, but many view it as lesser than the mighty SEC or Big Ten. Those are fair distinctions, but the Big 12 has enormous depth that perhaps those other two conferences do not.
Four teams ended last season tied for the top spot with a 7-2 record, while three others were 6-3. Kansas State leads the way at the No. 19 spot in ESPN’s SP+ rankings. The 16-team Big 12 has plenty of solid teams, but the conference finds its depth in the 25-40 range, where seven Big 12 teams fall.
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Perhaps the Big 12 does not have an Ohio State or Penn State-type team, but it sure has many squads capable of winning six to eight games.
Kansas State, TCU, BYU, Iowa State and Arizona State project as the conferences’ top five, but the gap to the rest is not very large.
The following projections center around each team’s returning production, strength of schedule and general path through the season. An easy schedule can lead to a surprise season. Colorado took advantage of one last year, riding one of the easiest schedules in the conference to a 9-4 record and nearly a Big 12 title game appearance. Demanding schedules can also derail what are otherwise solid teams.
As we did last weekend with each Big 12 team’s full 12-game slate, it is time to rank the schedules solely on conference games.
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Here is how we come to our analytics-based rankings:
The equation used to compare each slate is simple. First, we take each team’s SP+ number to get a numerical value for every game. The higher the number, the tougher the matchup. We then add every opponent’s SP+ rating together to find a total opponent score. That number is divided by the number of games, in this case 9 (total conference games) to find the average opponent score — a number that can then be compared to the SP+ rankings to find, on average, how tough a game will be each week. Game location is not a foctor in the SP+ value.
Here is every Big 12 team’s 2025 conference schedule ranked from easiest to toughest.
Total Opponent Score: 40. 1
Average Opponent Score: 4.45 (akin to the 47th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
If Houston were ready to make the jump to be a bowl-eligible squad, 2025 would be the year. Many might view the Cougars as the worst team in the Big 12, but they could be a feisty squad fighting tooth and nail for six wins.
Total Opponent Score: 41.5
Average Opponent Score: 4.61 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
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Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Baylor seems primed for a top-25 finish if it can build on its six straight wins to end the regular season. Dave Aranda’s group looks ready to take another big step forward, especially if they can pull off a win against either Kansas State or TCU.
Total Opponent Score: 42.2
Average Opponent Score: 4.68 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
You can applaud the Big 12 schedule makers for making a fair conference slate. Baylor, UCF, and the following five schools all have conference schedules that resemble playing the 43rd-best team in the country every week. Now, that is what I call even. Under returning head coach Scott Frost, the Knights are not expected to do much in year one, but winning four conference games is definitely on the table.
Total Opponent Score: 42.4
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Average Opponent Score: 4.71 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
No Kansas State or TCU means Arizona could significantly improve from their 2-7 conference record last year. With Brent Brennan going into his second year, I expect the Wildcats to be back around bowl eligibility, and who knows, a couple of surprise wins could have them right in the thick of the Big 12.
Total Opponent Score: 42.7
Average Opponent Score: 4.74 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
I think Kansas will be a popular Big 12 sleeper pick this season. Lance Leipold’s crew could easily start conference play 3-0 and in a win later in the year against Oklahoma State, and the Jayhawks would have already matched last year’s conference win total. Bowl eligibility should be achievable, but don’t be surprised if Kansas finishes with eight total wins.
Total Opponent Score: 43.4
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Average Opponent Score: 4.82 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
The Red Raiders have the easiest overall schedule in the Big 12 thanks to a nonconference slate featuring FBS bottom dweller, Kent State. However, their conference schedule won’t be a cakewalk. Utah, Arizona State, Kansas State and BYU will all be challenging matchups. If Texas Tech goes 2-2 in those four games, seven conference wins and a spot near the top of the standings are on the table.
Total Opponent Score: 44.2
Average Opponent Score: 4.91 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
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Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Oklahoma State is a confusing team to pin down entering 2025. I want to think Mike Gundy gets the Cowboys turned around and ready to fight for six wins, but I honestly don’t know. It could be another season of below-average play in Stillwater. Improving on last season’s zero conference wins should be the minimum expectation.
Total Opponent Score: 45.4
Average Opponent Score: 5.04 (akin to the 43rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Once again, BYU should be one of the top teams in the Big 12 and could start the season 6-0 before the always-important rivalry game against the Utah Utes. The Cougars’ game against TCU should be one of the games of the season.
Total Opponent Score: 47.5
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Average Opponent Score: 5.27 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Arizona State will be a popular pick to win the Big 12 after doing so last season and then making a run to the College Football Playoff. A rematch of the Big 12 title game against Iowa State should be a good litmus test to see where the Sun Devils stand.
Total Opponent Score: 51.1
Average Opponent Score: 5.67 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
There are not many “easy” wins for the Bearcats, and it will be a tall task for them to become bowl-eligible. Improving upon their 3-6 Big 12 record from last season would be a successful season in my book.
Total Opponent Score: 51.5
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Average Opponent Score: 5.72 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Iowa State will again contend for the Big 12 crown, but it will have to work for the conference’s top spot. The Cyclones should still easily get five conference wins, but the big question will be how they fair against Kansas State, BYU, Arizona State, and TCU. At least two wins in that group of four games sets them up for a spot in the Big 12 title game.
Total Opponent Score: 53.7
Average Opponent Score: 5.96 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
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The top team in the Big 12, according to the SP+ metric, which banks on the Wildcats improving their 5-4 conference record from a season ago. Quarterback Avery Johnson is a sleeper Heisman contender who can win a few games by himself. Getting to eight conference wins will be a challenge with several top contenders on the slate, but expect Kansas State to remain near the top of the Big 12.
Total Opponent Score: 54.2
Average Opponent Score: 6.02 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
TCU’s tough nonconference slate is backed up by a Big 12 schedule that does them no favors. Until the final two games, the Horned Frogs will be tested nearly every week. If TCU makes it through with seven or eight wins, they likely will be one of the better teams in the country.
Total Opponent Score: 54.8
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Average Opponent Score: 6.08 (akin to the 42nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Rich Rodriguez’s return to Morgantown won’t be easy. Houston is the only clear conference win on the schedule, and I don’t see the Mountaineers surprising many people this season. West Virginia finished a respectable 5-4 last year, but a worse record is in play in 2025.
2. Utah Utes
Total Opponent Score: 59.8
Average Opponent Score: 6.64 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Despite the challenging conference schedule, Utah should be the most improved team in the Big 12 this year. A more than manageable nonconference slate should give the Utes plenty of momentum heading into conference play. Games against Texas Tech, Arizona State, BYU and Kansas State will show the country if Utah football is back.
Total Opponent Score: 60.5
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Average Opponent Score: 6.72 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Colorado’s chances of repeating its 9-4 season form 2024 will be challenging. The Buffs own the toughest conference schedule and will need to take care of business against Houston, Arizona and West Virginia to guarantee a bowl game. A four-game stretch against BYU, TCU, Iowa State and Utah headlines the schedule. A 5-4 finish would feel like a major victory. Anything more and Colorado should be considered a top-20 team.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football 2025 conference schedule difficulty power rankings
