The Boston Red Sox will gladly say they loved their time with Alex Bregman, but bringing him back is going to come down to a calculated numbers game.
How much are other teams willing to bid on the three-time All-Star entering his age-32 season, coming off a second-half slump? The Red Sox waited out the market last offseason and successfully landed Bregman on a short-term deal, but it seems more likely he’ll prioritize a long-term commitment this time around, especially with no qualifying offer attached.
We’re in the phase of the offseason where we’re simply gathering projections and rough estimates for what it will cost the Red Sox to re-up with Bregman, and one baseball writer recently put out a guess that seems quite optimistic from Boston’s perspective.
Bregman projected to sign 5-year Red Sox deal
On Friday, Just Baseball’s Ryan Finkelstein predicted that the Red Sox would re-sign Bregman, and that it would only take a five-year commitment worth $155 million.
“Considering the fact that the Tigers went the longest in contract length last year at six years, it is unlikely for Bregman to secure a deal beyond that when he is a year older and coming off a season dampened by injury,” Finkelstein wrote.
“After only giving him a three-year deal a year ago, I think it is unlikely the Red Sox double that this time around, but settling on a five-year commitment that pays him roughly the same AAV as last year (when factoring in the deferrals) would make a lot of sense.”
Boston’s current luxury tax payroll estimate for opening day is $212 million after accounting for arbitration salaries, per Spotrac. That’s the eighth-largest figure in the league, and also leaves them just under $32 million before hitting the first penalty threshold.
If the Red Sox don’t have to commit to Bregman beyond his age-36 season, and also can afford his new deal and a few other free-agent signings, it would seem that the situation worked out nicely for all involved. But it’s a bit premature to know if that’s realistic without knowing which other teams will show genuine interest.
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