The Boston Red Sox made their first major trade of the offseason Tuesday when they sent No. 5 prospect Brandon Clarke, a hard-throwing lefty, and often-injured right-hander Richard Fitts to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for 36-year-old three-time All-Star Sonny Gray, a first-round draft pick of the Oakland Athletics in 2011 who has pitched for five different teams in his 13-year career.
But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow had earlier declared his intention to add a No. 2 starter for the rotation behind ace Garrett Crochet, leaving the question open as to whether he sees Gray as that starter.
Not everyone is convinced that he is.
“Gray profiles as a No. 3 starter at this point in his career. In 2025, he posted a 4.28 ERA with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate and a 5 percent walk rate to go along with his 3.6 fWAR,” wrote TalkSox analyst Alex Mayes on Friday. “That ERA is less than desirable and would have him ranked fourth on the Red Sox among starters who threw at least 20 games last season.”
If not Gray, who?
On Friday, Sammy James — a host of the WEEI Radio-affiliated podcast “Play Tessie” — proposed a trade that would bring the No. 1 starter on the team with the best record in baseball this year to the Red Sox, in exchange for a left-handed pitching prospect who has already made five major league starts, including one in the deciding game of the American League Wild Card Series.
“If the Red Sox want a top of the rotation arm like Freddy Peralta, get ready to pay a high price. Even get ready to ‘overpay,’ some might say!” wrote James on his social media account. “So is parting with Connelly Early worth acquiring Freddy Peralta? Would Milwaukee accept anything less?”
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Peralta, who led the National League in wins with 17 while posting an NL fourth-best ERA of 2.70 over 176 2/3 innings, topped a Brewers staff that propelled Milwaukee to a 97-win season and trip to the NL Championship Series. But according to a report published Wednesday by The Athletic, the Brewers are “fretting over their payroll,” which, according to the report, “raises the question: Will the Brewers trade right-hander Freddy Peralta?”
Playing the final season of a five-year, $15.5 million contract in 2026, Peralta will be a free agent after the upcoming season, meaning that if the Brewers — currently with MLB’s 16th-ranked payroll — fail to sign him to a contract extension, they lose him for nothing.
“For the Red Sox, Freddy Peralta, the fit is very obvious,” James said on Friday’s podcast. “He’ll be making only $8 million next year. Very cheap for a guy of his quality. The money makes me think this is even more likely a fit with the Red Sox after they have traded for Sonny Gray, who is gonna make $21 million.”
As for Early’s appeal for the Brewers, James says the 23-year-old is “the exact type of player they like to acquire. He slots right into their rotation, replacing Peralta. They save money and they acquire a guy who is pre-arb, young, talented, and not a free agent until 2032.”
Early is rated as the Boston organization’s No. 3 overall prospect by SoxProspects.com, and has already proven he can be viable pitcher at the major league level. In four starts with the Red Sox, all in September, the left-hander recorded a 2.33 ERA over 19 1/3 innings, striking out 29 while walking only four, all without allowing a home run.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora threw Early into the fire, sending him to the Yankee Stadium mound in the third and deciding AL Wild Card Series game against New York. The 2023 fifth-round draft pick out of Virginia held his own through the first three innings, retiring nine of the 11 batters he faced, striking out six, before the game got away from him in the fourth inning.
The Red Sox clearly see Early as an important part of their future, so surrendering him would be a significant sacrifice. But adding a proven ace in Peralta behind Crochet — and as the second starter in a playoff series — would be a win-now move that Breslow would need to weigh seriously if the opportunity to make it arose.
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