Study Ranks Maple Leafs, Oilers, Avalanche Best at NHL Drafting

The NHL draft is the main way teams build their rosters. Under the salary cap, first‑round picks are especially valuable: hit on those picks and you lock in cheap stars; miss, and you’re left scrambling. RG looked at every first‑round pick from 2014–2020 to see which teams did the best. We double-checked every player’s stats through the 2024–25 season on HockeyDB, Hockey‑Reference, EliteProspects, and PuckPedia. Players like Connor McDavid (361 goals and 1,082 points), Leon Draisaitl (399 goals, 557 assists), Mikko Rantanen (705 points) and Auston Matthews (401 goals) set the high bar.

How The First‑Round Draft Scores Were Calculated

We wanted an efficient way to compare how well each NHL team drafted in the first round between 2014 and 2020. To do that, we looked at five simple things for every team and then combined them evenly.

1. Average points per game – A player who scores 300 points in 600 games averages 0.5 points per game. We took the average of these values for all of the team’s picks.
2. Hit rate – Not every first‑rounder becomes a regular. We considered a pick a “hit” if he either played a lot (200 NHL games or more) or scored at least 0.5 points per game. We then counted what share of a team’s picks were hits. A team that hits on five of its six picks has a hit rate of 5 ÷ 6 ≈ 0.83.
3. Awards count – We counted how many draft picks from each team have won a major NHL award or made the All‑Star Game. Examples of major awards include the Calder Trophy for rookie of the year, the Hart Trophy for most valuable player, the Norris Trophy for best defenceman, the Conn Smythe for playoff MVP, and any Stanley Cup ring. We ignored minor honours and international tournaments so this measure reflects true star power.
4. Relative efficiency – Picking first overall should produce a star, while picking 25th normally produces a depth player. To account for this, we compared each player’s points to the average points scored by all players taken at his draft slot. If a player scored more than the average for his slot, it helped his team’s relative efficiency. If he scored less, it hurt. We averaged these differences across a team’s picks.
5. Playoff rate – We counted how many of a team’s picks have played at least one Stanley Cup playoff game. A higher rate means more picks have helped in the postseason.

After calculating these five numbers for each team, we scaled each measure between 0 and 1 (so that different units didn’t dominate) and then took an average of the five. This final number is the Weighted Score. A higher score means the team drafted better overall. For example, Toronto’s picks have high points per game, almost all have become NHL regulars, three have won big awards, many outperformed their draft slot, and they all have playoff experience. That’s why the Maple Leafs end up at the top of the list.

Overall Rankings

Here’s how each team fared on our five metrics and their overall score. Avg Rel Efficiency shows points above (positive) or below (negative) what you’d expect from the draft slots they used. Teams are sorted by the final score.

Top Performers

Toronto Maple Leafs – With six first‑round picks, Toronto grabbed stars in three of them: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Those players all score near or above a point per game, and three have major awards. Even their depth picks have become everyday players. The Leafs had the highest average scoring and the best hit rate, so they finished on top.

Edmonton Oilers – Two players, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, carry this draft class. They alone push the Oilers near the top in scoring and awards. The rest of the picks have been uneven, but those two stars are so good that Edmonton still finishes second.

Colorado Avalanche – Colorado’s eight first‑round picks include Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar (a Norris Trophy and Conn Smythe winner). Several others, like Bowen Byram, Tyson Jost, and Alex Newhook, have already won Stanley Cups as role players. Colorado’s relative efficiency was slightly negative because some high picks didn’t put up big numbers, but the major awards and Cup rings pull them into the third spot.

Strong Drafting Groups

Vancouver Canucks – Seven out of eight picks turned into NHLers. Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser lead the way in scoring; Quinn Hughes is one of the league’s best young defencemen. Their players score well and often beat expectations, though the team’s limited playoff runs keep their playoff rate lower.

Minnesota Wild – Five of six picks became hits. Players like Alex Tuch, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matthew Boldy are good two‑way forwards. None have won big awards, but Minnesota’s consistency gives them a strong score.

Winnipeg Jets – Eight picks; seven are playing in the NHL. Kyle Connor has blossomed into a scoring machine, and Nikolaj Ehlers and Josh Morrissey add depth. A balanced class lands Winnipeg in the top third.

St. Louis Blues – Six picks, five are regulars. They didn’t draft a superstar, but they found several solid contributors and got good value from late picks, boosting their efficiency.

Calgary Flames – Five picks, four are NHL regulars. While Calgary didn’t strike gold, steady contributions from players like Matthew Tkachuk keep them in the mix.

Middle of the Pack And Misses

Teams like Buffalo, Carolina, Nashville, Philadelphia, and the New York Islanders sit in the middle. They hit on some big names (Buffalo drafted Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, who has 619 points) but also had misses or traded away their best picks. Carolina found Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas, but others fizzled. Nashville, Philadelphia, and the Islanders turned many picks into solid players but lacked a true star.

At the bottom are teams like Chicago, Dallas, Ottawa, San Jose, Anaheim, and Pittsburgh. They either had few picks or missed on most of them. The Penguins, for example, made only two first‑round selections in this period; neither has become a regular yet, so their score is low.

Draft Gems And Whiffs

The relative efficiency measure highlights the best and worst picks. Players like David Pastrňák (25th overall, Boston, 833 points), Mathew Barzal (16th, 462 points), and Kyle Connor (17th, 582 points) blew away expectations for their draft spots. On the flip side, high picks like Michael Dal Colle (5th overall) and Olli Juolevi (5th overall) barely made an impact.

Takeaways

• Star power wins – One generational player can lift a whole draft class. Matthews for Toronto and McDavid for Edmonton are the biggest examples.
• Draft position doesn’t guarantee success – Late‑round steals like Pastrňák or Barzal can be more valuable than early picks who only meet expectations.
• Awards matter – Counting major NHL awards rewards teams whose picks become true game‑changers.
• Playoff experience counts – Teams whose picks have playoff time get a boost, but some data gaps might understate this.
• Defensive depth matters – Teams that draft offensive defencemen (Colorado’s Makar, Vancouver’s Hughes) score higher.