This offseason’s cutoff for Super Two arbitration eligibility is likely to land around two years and 139 or 140 days of service time, MLBTR has learned. MLB should finalize the cutoff within the next few weeks.
The Super Two this year should be a slight increase from last offseason, when the cutoff was 2.132 service years. Players automatically qualify for arbitration when they reach three years of service time and don’t already have a guaranteed contract. The top 22% of players in service between two and three years also qualify (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list).
Qualifying for early arbitration is a nice boost for a player’s earning potential. He gets to earn a salary above the MLB minimum a year earlier than most other players in the 2-3 year bracket. Arbitration salaries are also designed to escalate as a player builds service, so there are compounding benefits in future years from working off a bigger platform.
Here are the official thresholds from prior offseasons:
- 2024: 2.132
- 2023: 2.118
- 2022: 2.128
- 2021: 2.116
- 2020: 2.125
- 2019: 2.115
- 2018: 2.134
- 2017: 2.123
- 2016: 2.131
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
Matt McLain is the only player in MLB who ended the year with exactly two years and 140 days of service. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the Cincinnati second baseman for a $2.6MM salary. Next year’s league minimum is $780K, so it’s likely McLain will earn close to an extra $2MM by a matter of days (to say nothing of the escalating benefit if the Reds tender him contracts in future years).
There are three pitchers at 2.139 service years: Cincinnati starter Brandon Williamson, Seattle reliever Jackson Kowar, and Tampa Bay reliever Manuel Rodríguez. Their status won’t be known until MLB finalizes the cutoff, but none of those players are going to command much more than the league minimum regardless. They all spent most of this past season (all of it, in Williamson’s case) on the injured list.
No one in MLB has exactly 2.138 or 2.137 service years. It thus appears that the three players at 2.136 years — Lucas Erceg, Patrick Bailey, and Ryan Walker — will be the closest misses. They were each projected between $1.9MM and $2.5MM had they been eligible for arbitration. That’d be a nice development for the Giants, who would save around $4MM from an already light arbitration class if Bailey and Walker indeed are in for another season around the minimum.
Blake Perkins, Kody Clemens, Bryan Hoeing and Zack Kelly are the other players who would’ve qualified for Super Two at last year’s cutoff but are likely to fall short with the slightly higher threshold. Grayson Rodriguez (2.129), Reese Olson (2.123), Bryan Woo (2.121), Andrew Abbott (2.119) and Elly De La Cruz (2.118) are among the notable players who came up a couple weeks short.
Notable players who did qualify for Super Two status beyond McLain include Zach Neto (2.170), Maikel Garcia (2.168), Mason Miller (2.166), Brice Turang (2.165) and Francisco Alvarez (2.164). MLBTR’s projections for all arbitration-eligible players are available here.
