The Best Home Run Props to Bet Today

• We’ve got a decent day/night split slate waiting for us on Thursday, May 1
• Sometimes, the smart move is to get all of the action in on the early slate
• See below for my +14156 home run parlay today (May 1st)

We made it to May 1st. Honestly, I knew we were going to do it because we do it every year, but still, it feels good. Real good. As we get deeper into the summer, weather is going to play a factor in the home run game we play. Hotter temps mean more home runs. That’s just dinger science. There aren’t many “hot” games today, but there are a few warm ones with winds blowing in the direction we want. We’ll take any edge we can get at this point, even if we can’t see it. The only thing is, we need to get this thing in as quick as possible because these games all happen during the day. Early bird gets the worm. Feels right.

(Please remember to play all three legs straight for a 1/4 unit as well as a 1/4 unit three-leg parlay.)

MLB Home Run Parlay Today (May 1)

MLB odds as of May 1 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s list of the top sports betting apps for real money.

Thursday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run

I don’t want to take a +300 guy as much as the next man, but sometimes we have to do what we have to do. In my opinion, Buxton should be +240 in this matchup, so when we look at it like that, we’re getting value. At the end of the day, this game we play is all about value.

Seriously, how is a guy smashing like this only +300. That’s crazy.

I know Ben Lively throws the sinker a lot and Buxton rips that pitch from righties but what we really want is the four-seamer. The numbers say we need to be targeting a lefty in the Twins lineup since Lively has given up four of his five dingers to that side of the plate, but I’m not so sure. The underlying metrics say that he’s been lucky not to get ravaged by righties, too, since his hard hit rate is so high on that pitch. One thing I know is that if/when Buxton sees Lively’s four-seamer, it’s going to end up in the stands.

• The Bet: Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+300) – FanDuel

Thursday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Kyle Manzardo to Hit a Home Run

We simply have to get someone in this thing from the Cleveland Guardians’ side of the field, and it’s Kyle Manzardo. I went back and fourth between him and Jose Ramirez, but at the end of the day, it turned out to be Kyle. Let’s face it, it was always Kyle.

Just look at what he does to Simeon Woods Richardson’s pitch mix.

Here’s the thing: these dingers have a lot to do with the pitchers as well. On the surface, it feels like a hitter thing, but that’s just on the surface. Once we dig a little, we find out what’s really going on and simply put, Simeon Woods Richardson is a dinger pitcher. He’s only given up four so far this season, but that number is sure to rise given how hard guys are hitting him. Throw in a little wind/temp advantage, and we’ve got a Kyle Manzardo dinger. Feels right.

• The Bet: Kyle Manzardo to Hit a Home Run (+390) – FanDuel

Thursday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run

Obviously we need a Jackson in this thing so the books know we’re legit. Given that the other Jacksons aren’t playing, our decision is made for us. The thing is, I would have chosen this Jackson too.

When you dig in a little, it’s easy to see why Jackson Chourio is the man for the job today.

Sure we’ve got a great atmosphere from a weather/ballpark side of things but at the end of the day, it’s all about Sean Burke’s pitch mix. He throws a slider to righties that a little leaguer could take deep. We’re talking a .591 ISO on that pitch people. That’s terrible. What’s even better is, our Jackson destroys that pitch from righties. I can’t see how he doesn’t hit a dinger today. Feels too easy.

• The Bet: Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+480) – FanDuel
• SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -4.575 Units