It’s time to stop underestimating the Minnesota Timberwolves, as they pulled off yet another upset in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night and skyrocketed in the odds to win the NBA Finals as a result.
Minnesota is an underdog once again in Game 2, but Anthony Edwards’ return in Game 1 has given the Wolves a new outlook as they attempt to make a third straight Western Conference Finals appearance.
Meanwhile, the Spurs’ backs are against the wall, as they can’t afford to drop back-to-back games at home with how hot this Wolves team has been. Victor Wembanyama (11 points in Game 1) had a historic defensive game, blocking 12 shots on Monday, but the Spurs’ offense did not live up to the hype.
De’Aaron Fox (10 points) and Wembanyama did not play at an All-Star level on that end, so there still is a path to a Spurs win if they can find their form.
Minnesota continues to get a ton of production from Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and others, but it could be without Ayo Dosunmu (calf) once again in Game 2.
Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Wolves vs. Spurs on Wednesday night.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
- Timberwolves +9.5 (-110)
- Spurs -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Timberwolves: +285
- Spurs: -360
Total
- 215.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, May 6
- Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Series: Timberwolves lead 1-0
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Injury Reports
Timberwolves Injury Report
- Donte DiVincenzo — out
- Ayo Dosunmu — questionable
- Anthony Edwards — questionable
Spurs Injury Report
- Carter Bryant — questionable
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets
Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
- Anthony Edwards OVER 20.5 Points (-116)
Edwards was awesome in Game 1, shooting 8-for-13 from the field and 2-for-3 from beyond the arc on his way to 18 points in 25:15 of playing time.
There’s a chance Edwards has a similar minutes restriction in Game 2, but I’d bet on the star guard seeing a little more time after escaping Game 1 without a setback.
Chris Finch said Anthony Edwards’ left knee came through Game 1 well to this point: “So far, so good.” Edwards will get light work and treatment later today in San Antonio. No word on whether he can up Edwards’ minutes beyond that 25 range in Game 2.
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) May 5, 2026
Edwards averages 26.0 points per game in the playoffs in his career, and he’s an absolute steal at this number if he returns to the starting lineup in Game 2. Obviously, we’re hedging a bit – there’s a chance he’s still on a minutes limit – with this prop, but Edwards was still in the mix for 21 or more points in Game 1.
Plus, he had a 55-point showing against the Spurs earlier this season and has risen to the occasion time and time again in his postseason career. I’ll buy low on Ant as he works himself back into his usual role in this series.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is the play in Game 2:
The Timberwolves and Spurs both have elite defenses, and that was evident in Game 1 with these teams combining for 206 total points.
Victor Wembanyama blocked 12 shots in the loss for San Antonio, and Rudy Gobert locked him down on the other end, holding the All-NBA center to just 11 points. Gobert has been elite on the defensive end in the playoffs after slowing down Nikola Jokic in the first round.
So, I’m targeting the UNDER in Game 2 of this series.
San Antonio has a defensive rating of 103.2 in the playoffs, and it was third in the league in defensive rating during the regular season. The Wolves’ defensive rating is a little higher in the playoffs (107.9), but they have allowed 102 or fewer points in four of their last five playoff games, hitting the UNDER on this total in all four of those matchups.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have gone UNDER 215.5 points in five of their six playoff games, only clearing this in Game 3 against Portland (when Wemby didn’t play).
The UNDER is 51-38 for both of these teams in the 2025-26 season, and I am going to keep riding that trend with San Antonio’s young squad struggling a bit on offense in Game 1.
Pick: UNDER 215.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.
