Prop bet #1: Ride the lightning
Books just aren’t believers in Kansas City Royals right-hander Seth Lugo despite the veteran posting a 1.79 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP through 10 starts.
The O/U on his earned runs (2.5) and strikeouts (5.5) are both pretty tantalizing when you consider that he’s facing one of the worst lineups in the majors at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field today. While I like both of those props, the Under on his earned runs is juiced to -160 in the Seth Lugo odds while the Over on his Ks is at -135, so I’ll settle on the latter as my favorite play.
Lugo has fanned 8+ batters in four of his last five starts and the lone game where he went below that number came against a Brewers lineup that has the lowest chase rate in the majors. On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays are just 27th in chase rate while ranking 24th in strikeout rate (24.4%). Not only am I betting the Over 5.5 on Lugo’s punchouts in this spot, but I’ll ladder it up to 9, which pays out at +600.
Seth Lugo prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Freeman comes alive
Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman is having an off-year but he has been hitting the ball much better lately. The seven-time All-Star is slugging just .444 this season but he’s bumped that number up to .500 over the last three weeks.
Freeman is a proven slugger who was third in the majors in total bases (362) last year and he has still been raking against right-handers this year, slashing .331/.437/.551. He’ll have the platoon advantage tonight with the Cincinnati Reds sending righty Graham Ashcraft to the mound.
Ashcraft has a 4.25 ERA through nine starts and he sits in the Bottom 12th percentile of pitchers in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He has also been significantly worse at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and Freeman has gone 4-for-6 in his career against him. Take the Freddie Freeman odds on Over 1.5 total bases for tonight.
Freddie Freeman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-101 at Caesars)
Prop bet #3: Incredible Imanaga
The St. Louis Cardinals have been mashing lately, boasting an OPS of .771 over the last 15 days. That said, their lineup has struggled for most of the year and I don’t see them having much offensive success against the Chicago Cubs and phenom Shota Imanaga tonight.
Keep in mind that despite their recent tear, the Cards are still just 23rd in the majors in OPS (.669) with that number plummeting to .605 against southpaws like Imanaga. They are also just 29th in the majors in barrel rate and 26th in hard-hit rate, which suggests their recent hot streak has been a fluke.
A former Japanese League star, Imanaga has been incredible in his first year in the bigs. He has the second-best NL Cy Young odds and has pitched to a 0.84 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP through nine starts. The O/U on his earned runs is set at 1.5 with the Under paying out at plus money in the Shota Imanaga odds. He has allowed fewer than 1.5 runs in seven of his nine starts, and didn’t allow a single run in six of those outings.
Shota Imanaga prop: Under 1.5 earned runs (+125 at bet365)
