Prop bet #1: Punchout prowess
It may not always be pretty, but Lance Lynn is still grinding out innings for the St. Louis Cardinals, and I expect him to keep putting in work when he’s on the mound tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The veteran starter hasn’t given up more than four earned runs in a start this season, and the Pirates have had real issues when facing right-handed pitchers. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in batting average, 29th in OPS, and 28th in wRC+ when facing righties, getting punched out 25% of the time.
Lynn’s strikeout prop is sitting at 5.5 for this matchup, and while he’s gone Over that number just four times this season, he’s recorded 5+ in five of his last six starts. With a matchup where six innings of work is definitely on the table, Lynn looks like a good bet to go Over his strikeout prop in this one, particularly at this price.
It also doesn’t hurt that our Covers Prop Projections have Lynn at 5.8 strikeouts today.
Lance Lynn prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: The Joe Ryan Experience
Joe Ryan is quietly becoming the ace the Minnesota Twins had always hoped he would. The 28-year-old is dealing and I’m betting he keeps that going when he takes the ball against the Oakland A’s tonight.
Ryan’s fastball-splitter combination has been baffling hitters this season, and the right-hander is pitching to a 3.08 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .221 expected batting average. He’s also among the league leaders in strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is going to be a problem for Oakland.
After a very solid start to the season, the A’s have returned to the mean, dropping 22 of their last 29 games overall, including the last five in a row. Oakland is scoring the second-fewest runs per game this season and ranks 29th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 23rd in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching.
Ryan’s hits allowed prop is sitting at 4.5 for this matchup, which is a number he’s stayed below five times in his last nine starts and three of his last four overall. At close to even money, this looks like a great bet tonight.
Joe Ryan prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (-105 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Marte mashes
It has been a disappointing season for the Arizona Diamondbacks to this point. The reigning National League champs enter tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Angels four games under .500, sitting in fourth place in the NL West.
The biggest issue for Arizona this season has been its inconsistent bats, particularly against right-handed pitchers. However, you can’t put that blame on Ketel Marte, as the D-backs’ elder statesman continues to do his thing.
Marte is hitting .282 with a .860 OPS, 14 home runs, and 37 RBI. He’s been so good that he has the fourth-highest WAR in baseball this season, and his June is off to a blazing start.
The 30-year-old switch hitter is mashing the baseball right now, hitting for a .438 batting average and a 1.394 OPS over his last nine games, which includes four dingers. I like him to keep mashing when he faces off against Angels starter Griffin Canning tonight.
Like most of the Angels, it’s been a tough season for Canning. The right-hander is pitching to a 4.85 expected ERA and surrendering a .269 expected batting average. Those rank in the 16th and 20th percentile among MLB pitchers.
Marte has topped 1.5 total bases five times in his last eight starts, and at this price, there is value in the D-backs star to go Over his TB prop tonight.
Ketel Marte prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
