Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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The Marlins (16-33) stole Monday night’s series opener 3-2 in extra innings, cashing as a +120 home dog. In tonight’s rematch, the Brewers (27-20) hand the ball to lefty Robert Gasser (2-0, 0.82 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow southpaw Trevor Rogers (1-6, 5.79 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -130 road favorite and Miami a +120 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Brewers to bounce back with a win, steaming Milwaukee up from -130 to -145. The Brewers are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, signaling massive Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .255 with 59 homers and 237 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting .231 with 41 homers and 187 runs scored. Favorites with a winning record coming off a loss playing a team with a losing record are 62-33 (65%) with a 17% ROI this season. Milwaukee also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Brewers are 15-11 on the road. The Marlins are 9-18 at home. Gasser has only given up one earned run in 11 innings pitched in his first two career starts against the Cardinals and Pirates. Rogers has a 10.13 ERA in the month of May, allowing 12 earned runs over 10.2 innings in three starts against the Athletics, Phillies and Tigers.
This is the first game of a three-game series. The Braves (27-17) just dropped three of four against the Padres but avoided the sweep by winning yesterday’s doubleheader nightcap 3-0, cashing as -240 home favorites. Similarly, the Cubs (26-22) just dropped three of four against the Pirates, losing Sunday’s series finale 3-2 as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Braves tap righty Charlie Morton (3-1, 3.52 ERA) and the Cubs rebuttal with fellow righty Javier Assad (4-0, 1.49 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -130 road favorite and Chicago a +115 home dog. The public is laying the short chalk with the Braves, who have a better won-loss record and are laying a short number. However, despite receiving 60% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Atlanta fall from -130 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cubs, with pros grabbing the plus money with the unpopular home dog (+115 to +105). Chicago is only receiving 40% of moneyline bets but 50% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Cubs have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (11), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Chicago also enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Braves just played a doubleheader yesterday and now have to travel while the Cubs stayed in Chicago and were off yesterday. Assad has a 0.55 ERA in the month of May, allowing only one earned run over 16.1 innings pitched across three starts. In his last start, Assad went 6 innings against the Braves and gave up zero earned runs in a 7-1 win. In that same start, Morton lasted only 3 innings and gave up 3 earned runs.
The Cardinals (21-26) won last night’s series opener 6-3, taking care of business as -120 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (29-16) start righty Kyle Bradish (0-0, 2.63 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to fellow righty Lance Lynn (1-2, 4.17 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -140 road favorite and St. Louis a +130 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Orioles to get back on track, steaming Baltimore up from -140 to -155. The Orioles are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Baltimore has a big edge offensively, hitting .244 with 69 homers and 224 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .232 with 39 homers and 181 runs scored. Road favorites off a loss, like the Orioles here, are 60-35 (63%) with a 10% ROI this season. Baltimore has cleaned up against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season, going 63-26 (71%) with a 17% ROI since 2023. The Orioles also have value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Baltimore is 3-0 in Bradish’s three starts this season. He has given up just 4 earned runs over 13.2 innings pitched against the Yankees, Nationals and Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Lynn has a 7.36 ERA in three May starts, allowing 12 earned runs over 14.2 innings pitched against the White Sox, Brewers and Angels.
