President Donald Trump came within striking distance of winning the Latino vote in 2024, capturing higher numbers of Latino voters than previously believed, according to a new analysis of election results by the Pew Research Center.
The analysis, “Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition,” found that Trump “won with a voter coalition that was more racially and ethnically diverse” than in either 2016 or 2020. Trump was found to have captured 48% of the Latino vote, while former Vice President Kamala Harris secured 51%. This stands in stark contrast to the 2020 result, in which Trump won 36% compared to former President Joe Biden’s 61%.
Moreover, the report found that Latino voters who did not vote in 2020, but voted in 2024, were decidedly in favor of Trump, by a difference of 60% compared to 37% for Harris.
When it came to education, Latino voters without a college degree were more likely to vote for Trump than those with a college education.
The analysis also found that Trump did actually win one realm of the Latino vote: naturalized citizens. In 2024, 51% of naturalized Hispanic citizens voted for Trump, an increase from 39% in 2020.
The findings of the report call into question the tactics of the Democrats in appealing to Latinos.
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“They don’t have a get-out-the-vote problem. They have a policy problem,” Mike Madrid, GOP podcaster, Trump critic and author of “The Latino Century: How America’s Largest Minority is Transforming Democracy,” told Axios.
Madrid argued that the Democratic strategy of giving money to Latino voter-centered nonprofits is failing, along with a general disconnect from the policy issues those voters care about. According to Madrid, Democrats in Washington are not keyed in areas of affordability and the effects of inflation, which loses them votes from Latinos with a college education.
The report comes at a time when Trump’s immigration policies and deportations are creating uncertainty and buyer’s remorse among some Hispanic voters. Recently, the Supreme Court green-lit third-country deportations, allowing the Trump administration to deport immigrants to countries like El Salvador and South Sudan.
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