The best UFC bets, top DFS picks across multiple sites, and predictions for this weekend’s UFC Abu Dhabi are live on RotoWire before Saturday’s international event
UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Abu Dhabi – Ankalaev vs. Guskov
The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a showcase of fighters that players may not be very familiar with. We’ll break down each bout on the slate across three platforms, with picks including a Dagestani looking for his first UFC win and an American traveling overseas to spoil a party. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Steve Erceg has put two consecutive wins together following a three-fight losing skid, but I am not sold on the reemergence of the former title challenger, as he was almost knocked out by Ode Osbourne and struggled early against Tim Elliott before his gas tank failed. Temirov has a much deeper game than either of those opponents and will apply pressure just as heavily, which makes me worry that Erceg will not be able to get his offense going.
Sola’s tendency to throw one strike at a time hurt him against a dynamic combination puncher in Mason Jones, but we’ve seen Ismael Bonfim fall behind against long-in-the-tooth fighters like Vinc Pichel simply due to not throwing enough. Sola has the speed and power to make Bonfim pay for giving him time to work and should be able to notch takedowns due to his upright stance.
Izagakhmaev was ground to a nub in his UFC debut against Nicolas Dalby, with the Danish fighter forcing the clinch and wearing on the 31-year-old en route to a split decision victory. As a strong wrestler with power in his hands, Abubakar Vagaev may be able to follow that blueprint, but I believe Dalby’s athleticism was a key factor in being able to stick Izagakhmaev against the fence, and Vagaev is a flat-footed plotter by comparison. This speed advantage should allow the Dagestani to hit without getting hit back, and I have to assume he has focused primarily on wrestling and clinch defense after the loss.
There is no doubt that Rizvan Kuniev is a big and powerful heavyweight, but two clinch fests where the winner was the man who didn’t get as tired as his opponent haven’t inspired me to pick him as a significant favorite. Even if Fortune can’t have success with his wrestling here, we saw him throw combinations and successfully cut angles to escape from danger against Marcin Tybura, and I’m willing to bet he can do the cleaner work in the pocket.
Almost a year after his dominant showing on the Contender Series, the man playfully known as “John Pork” is set to make his UFC debut. As a Muay Thai stylist who has a training stable that includes Khabib Nurmagomedov and welterweight champion Islam Makhachev, expectations are high for Zaynukov, who likes to work the body before turning to his wrestling. Damian Rzepecki is a pressure fighter and a solid boxer, but Zaynukov should be able to overwhelm him with tecnique and power.
To be perfectly frank, I was not aware that Wellington Turman was still on the UFC roster. The 30-year-old is currently riding a three-fight losing streak, and has not stepped into the cage since being submitted by Jared Gooden in 2023. Dulatov can be a bit of a slow starter, which could make this price risky in GPPs, but I expect him to have every conceivable advantage here, which should lead to an early night.
I am going to lean toward athleticism again in what promises to be a binary fight. Nurullo Aliev will want nothing more than to take Davis to the ground, as “Beast Boy” will carry a substantial striking advantage. He will also have three inches of height on “Tajik Eagle,” which should make it difficult for him to get inside. We saw Aliev have trouble keeping the clinch against Shaqueme Rock, and winging big shots from his hip is unlikely to be the equalizer here.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks – Significant Strikes
Thomas Petersen OVER 20.5 Significant Strikes, Magomed Ankalaev OVER 37.5 Significant Strikes, and Dustin Jacoby UNDER 50.5 Significant Strikes
I have recommended Valter Walker to win by heel hook in two of his last three fights, but at a certain point, the genie must come out of the bottle. Petersen is a pressure fighter who has some agility for a heavyweight, which should help him stay out of Walker’s grasp. I expect this will result in a forced standup fight, helping us clear this total.
As many advantages as Ankalaev will have against Bogdan Guskov, we rarely see him press for a finish, instead opting for a slow kickboxing match. I expect this trend will continue, with Ankalaev slipping the telegraphed big shots of his opponent. A finish may materialize here, but I don’t expect the former title challenger to show a killer instinct following his knockout loss to Alex Pereira.
Jacoby is riding high off three straight knockout wins, and he now faces an opponent in Muhammad Said who will yield ground to his opponent. I expect either a quick finish or for Said to stall this fight out in the clinch. This will tamp down on the significant strikes landed by Jacoby, who is a slow worker under optimal conditions.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
It feels like good fortune to get any sort of juice on this number, as Patterson is an aggressive and powerful puncher with a five-inch reach advantage against a 39-year-old Santiago Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out in two of his last three losses. Agility was always a big part of the Argentine’s offense, but he has looked noticeably slower of late and should have nowhere to hide in the Octagon.
It may not feel comfortable to lay this kind of chalk on a narrow outcome, but Tucholov is a crisp striker who throws long, powerful punches and shows off his athleticism with things like flying knee strikes in the cage. Brendson Ribeiro is a structural mess with no chin, which almost ensures that he loses fights quickly. The Brazilian has been finished in the first round in each of his last three fights, and this kind of bet doesn’t penalize us if the Dagestani fighter finds a submission instead of a knockout.
Cody Gibson is often so wild in his pursuit of offense that he leaves himself open to be hit hard. Hussein’s pressure and power left UFC veteran Tyson Nam flat on his back in December, and he should be able to exploit the numerous holes in Gibson’s defense. Hussein has logged nine of his 15 wins via submission, which means he will be able to handle himself if Gibson takes this fight to the ground.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Abu Dhabi. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Christopher Olson plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: Sommerset, FanDuel: Christop, Yahoo: Martins.
