LAS VEGAS (KSNV) — As 2025 draws to a close, Las Vegas is looking ahead to a potentially brighter year for its hospitality industry, which supports more than one in four jobs in the state.
The Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV has released a study suggesting that the current slump in visitor numbers could end in 2026.
However, the outcome depends on various factors beyond local control.
Andrew Woods, director of the center, expressed a “cautiously pessimistic” outlook, noting that the economy has shifted over the past year and a half.
“We went through a period of very high inflation, but consumers felt like they could keep up, because the job market was very robust,” Woods said.
He added that the forecast for 2026 estimates between 39 and 40 million visitors, slightly below 2024 figures but potentially better than 2025.
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Woods emphasized that the success of Las Vegas tourism in 2026 will hinge on broader economic conditions rather than local promotions. “My general take is the economy has shifted,” he said.
The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates could also impact consumer spending on discretionary purchases, such as trips to Las Vegas.
The Culinary Union, representing 60,000 hospitality workers in Las Vegas, is hopeful for economic improvement.
Union leader Ted Pappageorge described the current situation as the “Trump slump,” with members struggling due to high living costs. “We’re more than pessimistic, unfortunately,” Pappageorge said. “We’re encouraged by these reports, but our members they’re having a hard time with the cost of living.”
Looking ahead, Woods believes that by the end of 2026, economic sentiment might improve.
“I think by the end of next year, sentiment will get lower. I think it might start to raise by the end of next year,” he said.
The best-case scenario would involve market corrections and wage growth, preventing layoffs and supporting consumer spending.
